(a)

Identify one reason why in 2018 the life expectancy in Beijing was higher than the national average for China, as referred to in Figure 3(a).

Figure 3(a): In 2019 Beijing had about 20.04 million people.
In 2018, life expectancy in Beijing was 81.2 years compared with 76.4 years for China.
In 2017, policies were implemented to restrict future Beijing population to 23 million by discouraging migration, encouraging relocation and relocating factories outside Beijing.

[ 1 ]

(b)

With reference to Figure 3(b), identify a year in which the population growth rate is negative.

Figure 3(b): Beijing population, 1965-2017

[ 1 ]

(c)

With reference to Figure 3(c), explain two reasons for the changes in the under 30 age groups from 1950 to projections for 2050.

Figure 3(c): Age-gender pyramids for China, 1950, 2015 and projected 2050

[ 2 ]

(a)

(i)

With reference to Figure 1 calculate the DT for India (X).

[ 1 ]

(ii)

With reference to Figure 1 calculate the NIR for Japan (Y).

[ 1 ]

(a)

(i)

Identify the stage of the demographic transition model represented by Figure 5.

Figure 5: 2009 age/sex pyramid for Iraq

[ 1 ]

[Maximum number: 5]

Figure 1: Three projections for world population from the present day to 2100.

The three lines indicate the high, medium and low projections for population size.

(a)

Calculate the range between the highest and lowest projected population size for 2100.

[ 1 ]

(b)

Identify two factors that could explain the variation in the projected population growth for the world.

[ 2 ]

(c)

(i)

Outline one economic implication of the highest projection for world population being realised.

[ 1 ]

(ii)

Outline one environmental implication of the highest projection for world population being realised.

[ 1 ]

[Maximum number: 8]

Figure 1: Demographic transition model

(a)

Costa Rica has a crude birth rate (CBR) of 15.3 and a crude death rate (CDR) of 4.8.

[ 3 ]

(i)

Identify the stage in which Costa Rica would be placed on the demographic transition model shown in Figure 1.

[ 1 ]

(ii)

Calculate the natural increase rate (NIR) for Costa Rica.

[ 1 ]

(iii)

Calculate the doubling time for Costa Rica.

[ 1 ]

(b)

Outline one strength and one limitation of the demographic transition model.

[ 2 ]

(c)

Outline the socioeconomic factors that may cause a society to move from Stage 2 to Stage 3 on the demographic transition model.

[ 3 ]

(a)

(i)

Outline why the shape of the population pyramid in Figure 3 indicates a high future population growth for Zambia.

Figure 3: Population pyramid for Zambia, 2014

[ 2 ]

(a)

(i)

Using the data in Figure 6, draw a line graph to show the increase in the population of the Naivasha area between the years 1969 and 2009.

Graph grid for population growth in the Naivasha area, 1969-2009

Year	Approximate number of people
1969	45000
1979	95000
1989	105000
1999	160000
2005	250000
2009	300000

Figure 6: Population growth in the Naivasha area

[ 2 ]

[Maximum number: 2]

With reference to Figure 3(b), outline two reasons for differences between the age-gender pyramids for Indonesia and Timor-Leste.

Figure 3(b): Age-gender pyramid for Indonesia, 2016

Figure 3(b): Age-gender pyramid for Timor-Leste, 2016

[Maximum number: 2]

With reference to Figures 2, 3(a) and 3(b), identify two reasons why Madagascar is considered to be at Stage 2 of the demographic transition model.

Figure 2: Madagascar is the fourth largest island in the world and had about 24 million people in 2016.
Crude birth rate was 32.1 per 1000 and crude death rate 6.7 per 1000 in 2016.
Main employment sectors are agriculture, fisheries and forestry; most people rely on traditional subsistence farming.
Forests are cleared for traditional farming, valuable timber and charcoal; soil erosion is serious, with up to 363 tonnes/ha/year lost in some areas.

Figure 3(a): Age-gender pyramid for Madagascar in 2016

Figure 3(b): Population curve for Madagascar, 1960-2015

(a)

Population (estimated)	5 million (including 104000 indigenous people)
Natural increase rate	1.05\%
Crude birth rate	15.3/1000
Crude death rate	4.8/1000
Life expectancy / years	78.9
Total fertility rate	1.89 (Note: In 1973, total fertility rate was 5.6)

Figure 4(a): Demographic data for 2018

Based on the 2018 data in Figure 4(a), calculate the doubling time for the population of Costa Rica.

[ 1 ]

(b)

Figure 4(b): Age-gender pyramid for Costa Rica in 1990 and projected pyramids for 2020 and 2050

(Figure 4(b) continued)

Costa Rica 2050 population: 5760000

With reference to Figure 4(b), suggest three possible reasons for the changes between the age-gender pyramid for 1990 and that projected for 2050.

[ 3 ]