IB Economics SL 4.10 Economic Growth and or Economic Development Strategies Questions

Study the extract and data below and answer the questions that follow.
Ecuador sees 2014 trade deficit falling with new import rules, but at what cost?

(1) In the period from January to May 2014, Ecuador posted a trade surplus of US$483 million, moving from a deficit of US$626 million one year before.

(2) The government has been implementing an import-substitution policy to reduce the trade deficit. On 4 December 2013, Ecuador's Foreign Trade Committee established new quality control measures for the importation of 293 items, including cosmetics, toys, toothpaste, meat and cereals. In order for goods on the list to be imported a certificate needs to be obtained, ensuring that the products meet quality control standards. There are up to 13 steps to be taken before a product may enter as a result of the excessive regulations holding up the certificates.

(3) The import-substitution policy also involves a move to provide support to domestic industries. The president firmly believes in the benefits of sheltering infant industries. He has complained about imports such as coconut water, banana puree or cornflakes, which he believes could be produced by domestic industries, supported by appropriate policies. In addition, he points out that Ecuador is a top exporter of fine aroma cocoa, but imports approximately US $\$ 25$ million worth of chocolate per year. Other measures to protect domestic industries include anti-dumping measures and higher tariffs on raw materials and capital equipment that are available in Ecuador.

(4) In the month since this intervention started, different businesses have begun to feel both the advantages and disadvantages. Pica, one of the largest companies in the plastic industry, has taken advantage of the policy. The reduction in the importation of certain products has allowed them to increase their own production.
(5) In contrast, Toni Industries, one of the most important dairy businesses in the country has suffered. It has complained that cornflakes, which the company uses as a complementary good to one of its key products, could not get through customs because it did not have the quality control certificate.

(6) Many industry analysts and economists argue that closing off imports will isolate the country and create a false sense of competitiveness. They are also concerned that the government seems to be assuming that other countries will not react. Some argue that the government should seek to create incentives for investment, like tax benefits, or legal security, which would allow the entry of new competitors into the Ecuadorean markets.

www.latinvex.com, 19 March 2014 and www.blogs.wsj.com, 14 July 2014]

Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate Ecuador's import-substitution policy as a means of achieving economic growth and development.

Study the following extract and answer the questions that follow.
Angola's economic reforms

(1) Following an oil price crash in 2014, Angola has endured a recession, a dramatic rise in inflation and empty supermarket shelves caused by severe shortages of foreign currency. Angola is highly dependent on export revenues from oil production, a major source of United States dollars. The foreign currency is needed to import manufactured goods because the country's manufacturing sector is small.

(2) To respond to these challenges, the president of Angola has presented a plan with desperately needed reforms to promote economic development. The plan proposes tax incentives to attract foreign investment and privatization of the telecommunication and railway sectors. It also aims to expand infrastructure projects with private sector involvement. In addition, reforms are recommended to make the banking sector stronger. This is important if the government wants to reduce the borrowing costs experienced by Angolan businesses.

(3) The recent 20 % devaluation of the kwanza (Angola's currency) is another sign that the government is serious about making Angola attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Angola has a fixed exchange rate. As the kwanza has been overvalued, this has caused a reduction in foreign currency reserves.

(4) Angola's future economic growth is likely to be low. The business environment for firms remains difficult. High borrowing costs, corruption and poor infrastructure remain challenges. The government has failed to exploit Angola's vast agricultural potential. The country depends heavily on oil revenues, which are falling.

(5) Living conditions for households are also poor as inflation is expected to remain above 25 %. Approximately 40 % of Angolans live in absolute poverty and unemployment is high, especially in rural areas. Aware of the urgent need to reduce regional inequality, the government has announced plans to encourage investment in rural areas. However, there are also proposals to reduce public debt by removing some subsidies on food and by introducing ad valorem taxes.

(6) Although Angola's economic growth has been slow, it remains the third-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa and the government is the second-largest public spender in the region.

Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the effectiveness of market-oriented policies in achieving economic development in Angola.

Study the extract and data below and answer the questions that follow.
Singapore

(1) Singapore is a high-income economy in South-East Asia. The country provides the world's most business-friendly regulatory environment for local entrepreneurs and is ranked among the world's most competitive economies. Presently, the strong manufacturing and services sectors have become the main drivers of the Singapore economy. There is a wide range of businesses, with a particular focus on high value added goods and services.
Timor-Leste (East Timor)

(2) Timor-Leste (formerly known as East Timor) is a developing economy in South-East Asia. Timor-Leste gained independence from Indonesia in 2002. The country and families were torn apart by violence in the years before independence. Nearly 70 % of all buildings, homes and schools were destroyed. An estimated 75 % of the population were forced to move due to the violence.

(3) After serious challenges, Timor-Leste has progressed, particularly due to its endowment of natural resources, especially oil. With the petroleum revenue boom, fiscal policy has been expansionary and the economy has grown rapidly as a result of government spending, focusing on major infrastructure, development of skills, and other institutional changes. A main goal was to generate increased and sustainable private sector investment as a means to increased job opportunities and to reduce poverty. These developments are starting to contribute to poverty reduction and improved social outcomes.

Define the term infrastructure indicated in bold in the text (paragraph 3 ).

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Text A — Overview of North Macedonia

(1) North Macedonia is a small, landlocked nation that shares borders with five countries, including Bulgaria and Greece. Bulgaria and Greece are members of the European Union (EU) common market, which North Macedonia hopes to join soon. Since the country began negotiating for EU membership, trade with the EU has increased rapidly and now accounts for 75 % of North Macedonia's exports and 62 % of its imports.

(2) Despite its small market, with a population of approximately 2 million, North Macedonia's proximity to the EU, low wages and expected entry into the common market have attracted foreign investors. Greece, its richest neighbour, was its third highest source of foreign investment in 2019. The lower cost of living also appeals to Greek tourists.

(3) EU companies have invested in the financial, telecommunication, energy and food processing industries in North Macedonia. Many of the most profitable companies are from the EU. If EU membership is granted, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows may increase as firms located in North Macedonia will be allowed to bypass all custom checks and enjoy tariff-free trade within the common market. One particular challenge for North Macedonia, however, is that most of the profits of foreign companies are likely to be repatriated (sent back to the companies' home countries).

(4) In 2018, North Macedonia's export revenue was US $\$ 7.57$ billion and its import expenditure was US$9.56 billion. The country's main exports are iron and steel, clothing and accessories, and food products. Food, livestock and consumer goods account for 33 % of imports while the remainder are machinery, petroleum and other materials needed for the industrial production process.

(5) The manufacturing sector, which now employs 31 % of the labour force, has gained more importance. The agricultural sector remains strong, contributes over 10 % of North Macedonia's gross domestic product (GDP) and employs about 16 % of the country's workforce.

(6) The unemployment rate decreased from over 30 % in 2010 to 17.3 % in 2019. However, youth unemployment is almost 40 %. Over 20 % of the population lives below the poverty line. Unemployment and poverty contribute to high rates of emigration. More than 20 % of the North Macedonian population have emigrated since 1994, mostly to the EU. As a member of the EU, North Macedonia will enjoy free movement of labour which will make it easy for its citizens to live and work in other EU countries.
Text B - North Macedonia's economic reforms

(1) To be considered for EU membership, North Macedonia implemented a series of supply-side policies to reform its economy. The EU imposes strict requirements for membership but provides financial assistance to countries preparing for membership. North Macedonia has received 633 million euros (the currency of the EU) to help with the reforms.

(2) Most of the supply-side policies seek to improve the international competitiveness of North Macedonia's industries. The authorities are increasing access to education and training for workers. The expansion of the transport network and other infrastructure is also expected to increase efficiency.

(3) Protection of the environment is also on the list of requirements for EU membership. North Macedonia aims to reduce its dependence on coal and to instead promote the use of solar, wind and hydropower technologies. These low-carbon energy sources would help decrease its air pollution, which is among the worst in Europe.

(4) The reforms, which started in 2014, have shown progress. Exports and manufacturing output are more diversified and more concentrated on high-value products. To attract FDI, North Macedonia maintains one of the lowest tax rates on corporate income in the region. The central bank also prevents the denar (North Macedonia's currency) from appreciating against the euro through managing foreign reserves. However, skill shortages and a mismatch of skills with those required by companies discourage foreign firms from investing. Important investment gaps in public infrastructure also remain.

Text C - North Macedonia's trade agreements
North Macedonia participates in five free trade agreements (FTAs), that together cover 95 % of its exports and 78 % of its imports. Most of its trade with the EU is already free but imports of wine, beef and fish products are still subject to quotas. North Macedonia is currently a net importer of agricultural and food products. All protectionist measures on EU products would be removed upon entry into the common market.

Define the term foreign direct investment (FDI) indicated in bold in the text (Text A, paragraph 3).

Study the extract below and answer the questions that follow.
Micro-credit conflict of interest

(1) The idea of giving small loans to poor people, especially women, was hailed as the key to achieving economic development for even the poorest citizens. Muhammad Yunus, the economist who pioneered the practice by lending small amounts to basket weavers in Bangladesh, won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2006.

(2) The practice has grown so popular, helping establish small businesses such as tailors and hairdressers, that some are now concerned over the direction it has taken. Attracted by the prospect of profits from even the smallest of loans, some banks now dominate micro-credit, with some charging interest rates of over 100 %.

(3) The key question facing the industry remains how much money investors should make from lending to poor people, mostly women, often at hidden interest rates. "Micro-credit should be seen as an opportunity to help people out of poverty, not as an opportunity to make money out of poor people," Yunus said. "Interest rates should be 10 to 15 % above the cost of raising the money and anything beyond that is exploitation. Most micro-credit lenders would fail this test."

(4) How much interest and profit are acceptable and what constitutes exploitation? The interest rates that draw the most concern include those in Nigeria and Mexico, where the demand for small loans from a large population cannot be met by existing lenders. One Mexican lender charges an annual rate of 125 %. The average in Mexico is about 70 %, compared with a global average of about 37 % in interest and fees.
5 There is debate over whether micro-credit loans actually lift people out of poverty. Some researchers conclude that not every poor person is an entrepreneur in waiting but the loans do help relieve some of the worst aspects of poverty.

(6) The micro-credit industry has outgrown its charitable beginning. Despite a promise to put the money back into development, analysts say the high interest rates and healthy profits of the largest micro-credit institutions pushed up interest rates across Mexico.

Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate micro-finance as a means of promoting economic development.

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Text D - Overview of Cameroon

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Text D - Overview of Cameroon

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Text D - Overview of Cameroon

(1) Cameroon is a country in Central Africa with a population of 25 million. It is rich in natural resources, including oil and mineral ores, and produces a wide range of agricultural products, such as cotton and cocoa. Its economic growth is usually driven by the export of oil. The gross domestic product (GDP) of Cameroon grew by an average of 5.6 % per year between 2013 and 2014 when oil prices were high.

(2) Economic growth slowed and the budget deficit increased sharply between 2014 and 2016, when oil prices fell by 45 %. Oil production is a major part of the formal economy and is an important source of tax revenue for the government of Cameroon. Up to 90 % of the workers in other sectors are employed in the informal economy and hence contribute significantly less to tax revenue. Increased military spending in response to recent conflicts in the western regions of Cameroon further widened the budget deficit.

(3) Since the collapse of oil prices, economic growth has been supported by expansionary fiscal policy, which has become increasingly difficult to sustain. The budget deficit has increased to around 5 % of GDP and caused government (national) debt to rise to 30 % of GDP.

(4) Although there has been some reduction in absolute poverty in Cameroon, the number of people living in relative poverty increased by 12 % to 8.1 million between 2007 and 2014. The funds allocated for poverty reduction often go to subsidies for electricity, food and fuel. This reduces available funding for education and healthcare, which is insufficient in rural areas where poverty is most extreme.

(5) With an abundance of natural resources, Cameroon has the potential to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). However, weak governance and the poor business environment have deterred foreign investors. Local entrepreneurs are also discouraged by the long wait times for obtaining licenses to operate and the difficulties in securing business loans.

(6) Cameroon maintains a fixed exchange rate to the euro, at 1 franc =0.0015 euro. Because of the persistent trade deficit, the franc (Cameroon's currency) is overvalued at this level. Interest rates are kept high to prevent capital flight, which could increase the currency's overvaluation.

Text E - The Growth and Employment Strategy

(1) The Growth and Employment Strategy is a set of policies adopted by the government of Cameroon to encourage diversification and promote efficiency in production. The policies have three broad objectives:
- Create jobs and reduce the size of the informal economy through investment in human capital.
- Increase productivity in agriculture, mining, and selected industries with potential for growth (timber, tourism, and information and communication technologies).
- Encourage private investment and trade through the provision of infrastructure (including roads, ports and clean water supply).

(2) Productivity is low, especially in the primary sector. Cameroon has one million small farms engaged in traditional agriculture, but has a limited number of workers trained in good farming practices and management skills. Unskilled workers often work in the informal economy.

(3) Access to imported fertilizer and lower transportation costs could reduce costs of production significantly. Farms also need to increase productivity to reduce labour costs. The monthly agricultural wage averages 20000 francs but the government has recently increased the minimum wage to 36270 francs. This could lead to an improvement in the economic well-being of workers in the formal economy but could increase unemployment and force some workers to enter the informal economy.

(4) The government remains committed to keeping food prices low in the short term through subsidies. Due to improved farming methods, farmers produced better quality cocoa beans in 2019, allowing them to charge higher prices on the international market. Over time, the increase in productivity should lead to higher incomes, lower prices and higher-quality products.
Text F - Free trade agreements with the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK)
Cameroon has signed free trade agreements with the EU and the UK, which allow tariff-free access to the EU and the UK markets for products such as bananas, aluminium and processed cocoa products. Tariffs on imports into Cameroon of machinery and equipment, vehicles and fertilizers were also removed. However, tariffs on textiles and strategic agricultural products such as meat products, milk and selected vegetables were maintained.

* charged by financial institutions on loans

Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, discuss the need for a balance between market-oriented policies and government intervention to promote economic development in Cameroon.