5. Moving back to the US
Reducing costs has been a significant driving force in pushing multinational companies to offshore manufacturing. However, as emerging economies develop, labour costs are rising.
Between 2005 and 2010, wages of factory workers in China rose by 69 %. An analyst for Boston Consulting Group said that "the cost advantages from offshoring are falling to such an extent that some American multinationals with manufacturing offshore are returning home to supply their American customers". By 2015, the cost advantage of offshoring manufacturing for the United States (US) market will disappear. The analyst has forecasted, based on the same time series technique as sales forecasting, that wages will continue to grow at around 17\% a year in China, but remain stable in the US.
Gary Pisano, of Harvard Business School, said that some American companies that had considered offshoring parts of their business are choosing to expand within the US. General Motors, for example, will invest US $ 2 billion to create 4000 jobs at 17 manufacturing plants in the US.
A growing number of multinational companies, especially from high-income countries, are starting to see the benefits of keeping their manufacturing "at home". For many producers, labour costs are a small proportion of the total cost. Also, long and complex supply chains have become unreliable due to changes in external factors such as the increase of oil prices, political instability and natural disasters such as earthquakes.
However, Gary Pisano also argues that:
- in some industries, such as consumer electronics, the US no longer has the necessary supply chain
- some multinational companies will continue to build most of their new factories in emerging economies, where the demand is growing fastest
- some of the new factories in the US have been financed by government subsidies, which will soon stop
- in India, despite rising wages, its innovative software development and call-centre offshoring industries are likely to retain its cost advantages because of increasing productivity.