IB Economics HL 3.6 Fiscal Policy Question Bank

Study the extract below and answer the questions that follow.
Ghana to seek help from International Monetary Fund

(1) Ghana has said it will seek financial aid in the form of a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help stop the rapid decline in the value of the cedi, Ghana's currency, and close a large budget deficit. Ghana's transformation from one of Africa's fastest growing economies to the home of the world's worst-performing currency has become a concern. The exchange rate depreciated by 40 % against the US dollar in 2014. The fall in the currency has led to increases in the price of consumer goods such as sugar and fuel; inflation is at an unacceptable 15 %.

(2) Despite being a major exporter of gold, oil and cocoa, Ghana's current account deficit has risen sharply to 12 % of its gross domestic product (GDP). This is partly due to a rapid increase in demand for imports and falling gold prices. Additionally, oil revenues have not been as strong as expected.

(3) The government is also struggling with a wide budget deficit, which stood at 10 % of GDP last year. Ghana's good reputation for fiscal responsibility has worsened considerably as the government tripled salaries for police officers and soldiers.

(4) It is expected that the news of talks with the IMF will be positively received in international financial markets. The finance minister has said the step would help to stabilize the currency, to bring domestic prices under control, and also to restore investors' confidence in Ghana's economy.

(5) A Ghanaian spokesperson noted that the IMF would insist on the government introducing measures to tackle inflation and reduce its budget deficit. The IMF says that Ghana needs to tighten its budget immediately, by reducing public sector wages, lowering subsidies and increasing taxes. The IMF is likely to demand a limit on borrowing and perhaps some privatization of power and water companies.

(6) Earlier this year, problems in the economy had led to nationwide protests, with thousands of workers across the country protesting in the streets about the rise in the cost of living. The country's largest trade union says the government has been mismanaging the economy. In response to the protests, a government minister said that the government would work very hard to achieve economic development to make life easier for the working people of Ghana but that all Ghanaians would have to make "some sacrifices for the economy to recover". and www.bbc.com/news, 24 July 2014 and 4 August 2014]

Define the term budget deficit indicated in bold in the text (paragraph (1)).

Read the extracts and answer the questions that follow.
Text D - Overview of Malawi

(1) Malawi is a landlocked country in southern Africa. Its development plans contain 169 targets, based on the Sustainable Development Goals. Ineffective institutions and inequalities, however, make it difficult to reach every target. Although poverty in urban areas has declined, the level of absolute poverty has been increasing in rural areas where 85 % of the population lives. Causes of poverty include land degradation ( 80 % of the land is eroded or lacks nutrients), poor healthcare and rapid population growth. There is also a lack of human capital, which is often due to the difficulties that households have in obtaining loans for education or training. Approximately 75 % of households do not have access to formal banking services.

(2) Aid agencies are providing assistance. The World Bank's Human Capital Project will increase investment and encourage reforms, such as promoting the education of teenage girls. In 2020, the World Bank also approved US $\$ 157$ million ( 50 % as a loan and 50 % as a grant) for a government project. This project aims to increase sustainable land management practices and build water-related infrastructure, such as small dams and irrigation schemes.

(3) The government has encouraged the establishment of microfinance groups that act as rural banks. They provide some finance and guidance for programmes that introduce new types of crops and techniques in order to improve agricultural efficiency.

(4) Although 2019 was a difficult year due to drought, insect infestations, and a tropical cyclone, Malawi's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.5 %. There is a large budget deficit and the amount of government debt (at approximately 60 % of GDP) is considered to be too high. Therefore, the government has announced plans to reduce its spending. Inflation had been forecast to increase to 14 % in 2020. Due to the planned contractionary fiscal policies, however, inflation may fall below 10\% from 2021 onwards.

(5) Export revenues account for over 30 % of GDP. Malawi aims to increase its exports of cotton, nuts, tea and sugar. Rising exports and lower fuel import prices could reduce the current account deficit. Despite the persistent trade deficit, Malawi is resisting calls for further trade protection. It has signed bilateral trade agreements with both South Africa and Zimbabwe. Tariffs are gradually being reduced, while other indirect and direct taxes are being raised.
Text E - Agricultural Production

(1) Approximately 80 % of the labour force is employed in agriculture, with few job opportunities available in manufacturing and services. Agricultural productivity is low for many reasons. The government promotes manufacturing industries and cultivation of crops for export by large-scale farms. However, small-scale and subsistence farmers have received little support in the past. Farmers use less fertilizer and irrigation than is typical in other countries. Only 3 % of cultivated land is irrigated, compared to the global average of 21 %. Other challenges are the inadequate road and rail links to markets and the limited availability of electricity and fuel.

(2) Maize is the most important staple food in Malawi. The government uses price controls when trying to ensure that maize is available at affordable prices for low-income households. However, the maximum price set by the government is often too low to persuade farmers to supply the maize or to provide them with sufficient revenue. In 2020 , the maximum price was raised from 250 to 310 kwacha per kilogram. Even at the higher price, shortages remain.

(3) The government is planning to invest in commercial agriculture to improve productivity and promote diversification. The 2020 budget includes subsidies on fertilizer for 4.3 million small-scale farmers, which could possibly double maize output but may also pollute waterways. The support given to farmers will improve the nutrition of Malawians and stimulate the rural economy.
Text F - Tobacco Exports
Tobacco is Malawi's major export, providing over 50 % of foreign currency earnings. Due to lower global demand and the purchasing policies of multinational tobacco firms, prices paid to farmers in Malawi are low and falling. To reduce costs, farmers resort to using child labour. Following allegations of labour exploitation, the United States has restricted tobacco imports from Malawi. There is concern that other importing countries might also impose restrictions.

* 2018 figure

* 2016 figure

Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how a reduction in government spending may reduce inflation (Text D, paragraph 4 ).