CAIE A-Level Business 8.1.3 Sales forecasting

Refer to Table 1.1. Calculate for quarter 1, 2023, the seasonal variation.

Seasonal variation $=16-23.75=-7.75 \mathbf{O R}-7750 \mathbf{O R}(7.75)(1)$

Note:

No mark for 7.75 OR 7750.

Refer to Table 1.1. Calculate for quarter 2, 2023, the centred quarterly moving average.

For anything other than the full mark answer there should be relevant working.

Evaluate the usefulness to SF of sales forecasting.

3(c)

0 &
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No creditable response.

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No creditable response.

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No creditable

response.

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No creditable response.

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Indicative content

AO1 Knowledge and understanding

Limited knowledge K will be demonstrated through knowledge of sales forecasting or knowledge of the usefulness or limitations of sales forecasting to SF.

Developed knowledge K+K will be demonstrated through knowledge of sales forecasting and knowledge of the usefulness or limitations of sales forecasting to SF.

- Sales forecasting involves making a prediction of future sales.

- Time series analysis is a method of forecasting based on extrapolation from past data.

- Benefits of sales forecasting include:

- Contribution to workforce planning

- Planning purchase of resources

- Greater accuracy in cash flow forecasting

- Aids operational decisions such as need to increase capacity

- Aids decisions about pricing

- Drawbacks of sales forecasting include:

- Inaccuracy

- Dynamic market

- Doesn't take into account qualitative factors

- Past can't predict the future

- Moving averages are based on past data

AO2 Application

Limited application, ${ }^{\mathrm{APP}}$ applies knowledge to SF once.

Developed application, ${ }^{\triangle \mathrm{PP}}+{ }^{\triangle \mathrm{PP}}$ applies knowledge to SF twice.

- Reference to current capacity utilisation of over 90%.

- Need for forecast of sales if start to export to country D.

- Role of market reports and market research in forecasting.
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3(c)

- Identifying likely demand for tofu and Sosoy Ice Cream.

- Identifying employees needed in factory and decision about employment contracts to use.

- Inability to control the weather.

AO3 Analysis

Limited analysis ${ }^{\text {AN }}$ - candidate shows one link in the chain of analysis.

Developed analysis L2AN - candidate shows two or more links in the chain of analysis.

- Helps ensure efficient use of labour and machinery helping to control costs of production ${ }^{\text {AN }}$ and therefore increase profit L2AN.

- Contributes to creating cash flow forecast which will help ensure that SF has sufficient finance in place to deal with future needs AN.

- Sales forecasts for entering country D will help evaluate whether break-even can be achieved ${ }^{\mathrm{AN}}$ and therefore whether exports are likely to be successful L2AN.

- Because the market is dynamic it could lead to misallocation of resources such as having too many peripheral employees in the factory AN which would lead to increased costs ${ }^{\text {L2AN }}$.

AO4 Evaluation

Limited evaluation ${ }^{[\text {vxil }]}$ - limited supported judgement and/or a weak attempt at evaluative comment.

Developed evaluation ${ }^{\text {L2 }}$ - supported judgement and/or reasonable evaluative comment.

Developed evaluation in context ${ }^{\text {L3 }}{ }^{\text {vast }}$ - supported judgement in context and/or reasonable evaluative comment in context.

- Using 4 period moving average fits the data well as there are clear seasonal variations ensuring that the technique is more likely to give reliable results.

- Unexpected changes in the external environment such as entry of a new competitor will result in the predictions being incorrect and therefore less useful in making the best decisions.

- TSA relies on future events behaving as in the past so may not be reliable as markets are dynamic.

- May be advisable to introduce an element of probability to the forecasts - what if analysis?

- The longer the time frame the less useful the forecast is because there are more likely to be external events that impact the forecast.

- Using simple moving averages and a line of best fit may be too simplistic.

- Usefulness is limited if managers don't use the sales forecast to make decisions.

- Should be used in conjunction with qualitative data and current market data to improve usefulness.

Accept all valid responses.