Practise advanced Marketing through elasticity, forecasting, product development and strategic planning, combining calculations and case evidence to make commercial decisions.
Refer to lines 57 to 58 and assume no other changes. Calculate the forecast percentage change in sales for 2025 if average incomes increase by 1.5%.
The market research has allowed HP to estimate the income elasticity of demand for organic pet food as +2.
If average incomes go up by 1.5%, then demand will increase by 1.5×2=3%(1)
Note: \% not needed for full marks.
Refer to lines 36-40. Calculate the estimated change in quantity demanded if CD increases the price of its detergent from $ 4.00 to $ 4.60.
$4.00 to $4.60
Indicative content
PED = \% change in Qd / \% change in price and/or \% change in Qd = PED × \% change in price (1 mark)
Percentage increase in price =0.6/4×100=15%(1)
\% change in Qd =15×−0.6 (3)
\% change in Qd = 9% OR a reduction of 9000 units (4)
Evaluate the importance of new product development to CD's future success.
Evaluate the importance of new product development to CD's future success.
4(b)
Indicative content
Responses may include:
AO1 Knowledge and understanding
- New product development is the design, creation and marketing of new goods and services.
- Research and development is the scientific research and technical development of new products and processes.
Benefits of new product development:
- Attract repeat purchase by offering a product that is new and better.
- Meet customer needs more effectively.
- Gain a competitive advantage over competition.
- Product differentiation.
- Control over pricing.
- Refresh the brand.
- Cost of product development.
AO2 Application
Limited application, APP applies knowledge to CD once.
Developed application, APP +APP applies knowledge to CD twice.
- Competitive market.
- Consumer product tests showing CD products not as good for cleaning.
- Environmental credentials of CD have been questioned.
- Cost of R&D - increase in expenditure to 3% of revenue (that would be $ 639000 in 2024).
- Shareholder pressure for returns.
- Reference to price inelastic demand (-0.6).
AO3 Analysis
Limited analysis AN - candidate shows one link in the chain of analysis.
Developed analysis L2AN - candidate shows two or more links in the chain of analysis.
- Improvements in cleaning power of products will maintain consumer interest and prevent the product becoming less effective relative to products of competitors AN. This will result in higher sales and increased profit L2AN.
- R&D can improve sustainability of CD's cleaning products further differentiating them from MNCsAN and attracting customers L2AN.
4(b)
- R&D can enable CD to launch new products and maintain growth in revenue AN which can help meet shareholder expectations for higher returns L2AN.
- Improved products could make CD's detergents more price inelastic AN.
- R&D is costly and may therefore negatively impact CD's cashflow and liquidity AN.
- R&D may be classified as an operating expense and can therefore result in a decrease in profit AN.
AO4 Evaluation
Limited evaluation Eval - limited supported judgement and/or a weak attempt at evaluative comment.
Developed evaluation L2 Evat - supported judgement and/or reasonable evaluative comment.
Developed evaluation in context ⌊L3Eval - supported judgement in context and/or reasonable evaluative comment in context.
- Without product development CD will lose its competitive edge in the market. Products need to be continually improving.
- Can R&D match the results of the spending by MNCs which will be significantly more than CD can afford?
- R&D is risky and may not bring improvements to products.
- Is product development the most important factor to future success:
- Role of marketing to support new products.
- Role of marketing research as part of NPD.
- Competitor decisions.
Accept all valid responses.
Evaluate PV's marketing strategy between 2012 and 2021.
Evaluate PV's marketing strategy between 2012 and 2021.
Level
AO1 Knowledge and understanding 3 marks
AO2 Application
2 marks
AO3 Analysis
8 marks
AO4 Evaluation
7 marks
3
7-8 marks
Developed analysis of the overall strategy that identifies
connections between
causes, impacts and/or
consequences.
6-7 marks
Effective evaluation
A developed judgement/conclusion is made in the business context that draws together developed evaluative comments which balance some key arguments in the business context.
2
2-3 marks
Developed knowledge of relevant key term(s) and/or factor(s) is used to answer the question.
2 marks
Developed application of relevant point(s) to the business context.
4-6 marks
Developed analysis of
individual strategic element(s) that
identifies connections between causes,
impacts and/or
consequences.
3-5 marks
Developed evaluation
- A developed judgement/conclusion is made.
- Developed evaluative comments which balance some key arguments.
1
1 mark
Limited knowledge of relevant key term(s) and/or factor(s) is used to answer the question.
1 mark
Limited application of relevant point(s) to the business context.
1-3 marks
Limited analysis that identifies connections between causes, impacts and/or consequences.
1-2 marks
Limited evaluation
- A judgement/conclusion is made with limited supporting comment/evidence.
- An attempt is made to balance the arguments.
0
0 marks
No creditable response.
0 marks
No creditable response.
0 marks
No creditable response.
0 marks
No creditable response.
1
Indicative content:
AO1 Knowledge and understanding
No other AO2, AO3 or AO4 marks can be awarded without AO1.
Candidates must show knowledge and understanding, they cannot just mention a key term.
- Strategy - A plan of action to achieve a long term aim.
- Marketing - the act of promoting and selling products and services.
- The contents of a marketing plan: objectives, resources, research, marketing mix (price, product, place, promotion).
AO2 Application
Candidates must apply their answers to marketing and marketing strategy.
- Strong brand identity begins in 2012 with rare old cars.
- Promotion in specialist magazines is used which changes objective to profit maximisation.
- Pricing method later changes to skimming.
- Use of TV restoration programme to raise brand awareness in 2015-16 leading to increased brand awareness worldwide.
- Use of website and social media to gain customers, brand awareness and sales.
- Sponsorship of Formula 2 team to raise brand awareness 2018-2021.
AO3 Analysis
Candidates need to identify an element of the marketing strategy and provide developed analysis to get to A2, this then needs to be counterbalanced to get to A3. If a candidate does this twice, they will gain 8 marks.
- A strategy to sell rare old cars in the niche market led to increased brand awareness. [A2] This brand awareness must have been high to attract the interest of a TV company which further developed the brand image. However, this will require specialist marketing to reach the niche. [A3]
- The marketing focus changes again to increasing brand awareness with the TV programme. This shows that PV is responsive to marketing opportunities and objectives can be fluid. [A2] But relies on product placement rather than direct advertising which may take longer to improve sales. [A3]
1
- The sponsorship of FAST continues to focus on brand awareness through an international platform. [A2] However, the sponsorship may not fit with the branding strategy as although costs are increasing by $2 m per year, the sponsored team is not providing the success necessary to increase or strengthen the brand image which leads to the marketing being abandoned. [A3]
AO4 Evaluation
Candidates MUST answer the question - a judgement on the strategy between 2012 and 2021. The development and support of this judgement will help them to move through N2 and N3.
To award N 3 the answer must be in context and draw upon the previous analysis.
Evaluation will largely depend on the points raised in the analysis of the marketing strategy of PV.
- Overall judgement required on the balance between strengths and weaknesses of PV's approach to its marketing strategy. [N1]
- The lack of a formal marketing plan suggests that PV is opportunist, and the approach is based on opportunity rather than a considered marketing strategy. Sales had stalled in 2017 and seemed to struggle to increase indicating the strategy had not worked.
- The TV programme was an effective and low-cost advertising method as the programme paid for filming, editing and managing the tv schedule which met the marketing strategy and objectives at the time. This also led to alternative revenue streams which suggests that the strategy to allow filming was successful.
- The sponsorship deal, while it could have been lucrative, was reliant on the FAST team who did not perform by 2020-21 - possibly impacting sales while the costs grew to $4m.
Accept all valid responses.
Refer to Table 1.1. Calculate for quarter 1, 2023, the seasonal variation.
Refer to Table 1.1. Calculate for quarter 1, 2023, the seasonal variation.
Seasonal variation =16−23.75=−7.75OR−7750OR(7.75)(1)
Note:
No mark for 7.75 OR 7750.
Refer to Table 1.1. Calculate for quarter 2, 2023, the centred quarterly moving average.
Refer to Table 1.1. Calculate for quarter 2, 2023, the centred quarterly moving average.
For anything other than the full mark answer there should be relevant working.
Evaluate the usefulness to SF of sales forecasting.
Evaluate the usefulness to SF of sales forecasting.
3(c)
0 &
0 marks
No creditable response.
0 marks
No creditable response.
0 marks
No creditable
response.
0 marks
No creditable response.
\end{tabular}
Indicative content
AO1 Knowledge and understanding
Limited knowledge K will be demonstrated through knowledge of sales forecasting or knowledge of the usefulness or limitations of sales forecasting to SF.
Developed knowledge K+K will be demonstrated through knowledge of sales forecasting and knowledge of the usefulness or limitations of sales forecasting to SF.
- Sales forecasting involves making a prediction of future sales.
- Time series analysis is a method of forecasting based on extrapolation from past data.
- Benefits of sales forecasting include:
- Contribution to workforce planning
- Planning purchase of resources
- Greater accuracy in cash flow forecasting
- Aids operational decisions such as need to increase capacity
- Aids decisions about pricing
- Drawbacks of sales forecasting include:
- Inaccuracy
- Dynamic market
- Doesn't take into account qualitative factors
- Past can't predict the future
- Moving averages are based on past data
AO2 Application
Limited application, APP applies knowledge to SF once.
Developed application, △PP+△PP applies knowledge to SF twice.
- Reference to current capacity utilisation of over 90%.
- Need for forecast of sales if start to export to country D.
- Role of market reports and market research in forecasting.
\end{tabular}
3(c)
- Identifying likely demand for tofu and Sosoy Ice Cream.
- Identifying employees needed in factory and decision about employment contracts to use.
- Inability to control the weather.
AO3 Analysis
Limited analysis AN - candidate shows one link in the chain of analysis.
Developed analysis L2AN - candidate shows two or more links in the chain of analysis.
- Helps ensure efficient use of labour and machinery helping to control costs of production AN and therefore increase profit L2AN.
- Contributes to creating cash flow forecast which will help ensure that SF has sufficient finance in place to deal with future needs AN.
- Sales forecasts for entering country D will help evaluate whether break-even can be achieved AN and therefore whether exports are likely to be successful L2AN.
- Because the market is dynamic it could lead to misallocation of resources such as having too many peripheral employees in the factory AN which would lead to increased costs L2AN .
AO4 Evaluation
Limited evaluation [vxil ] - limited supported judgement and/or a weak attempt at evaluative comment.
Developed evaluation L2 - supported judgement and/or reasonable evaluative comment.
Developed evaluation in context L3 vast - supported judgement in context and/or reasonable evaluative comment in context.
- Using 4 period moving average fits the data well as there are clear seasonal variations ensuring that the technique is more likely to give reliable results.
- Unexpected changes in the external environment such as entry of a new competitor will result in the predictions being incorrect and therefore less useful in making the best decisions.
- TSA relies on future events behaving as in the past so may not be reliable as markets are dynamic.
- May be advisable to introduce an element of probability to the forecasts - what if analysis?
- The longer the time frame the less useful the forecast is because there are more likely to be external events that impact the forecast.
- Using simple moving averages and a line of best fit may be too simplistic.
- Usefulness is limited if managers don't use the sales forecast to make decisions.
- Should be used in conjunction with qualitative data and current market data to improve usefulness.
Accept all valid responses.