S1.1.1 - Mathematical modelling in probability and statistics

The basic ideas of mathematical modelling as applied in probability and statistics.

Use mathematical modelling in probability and statistics to connect the rule to the data and decision in the question.

This matters because mathematical modelling in probability and statistics determines what can be inferred or chosen; begin with the stated conditions and keep the conclusion tied to the evidence.

Example: apply mathematical modelling in probability and statistics to one small, clearly defined case, show the key step or comparison, and explain the result in words.

Boundary: Mathematical modelling in probability and statistics is not a universal recommendation. Check the syllabus scope, assumptions, units and the limits of the evidence before generalising.