Questio
n
With reference to Figure 1, Extract A and Extract B, discuss the likely microeconomic effects of a housing market bubble in New Zealand.
Indicative content
12(e)
Indicative content guidance
Answers must be credited by using the level descriptors (below) in line with the general marking guidance.
The indicative content below exemplifies some of the points that candidates may make but this does not imply that any of these must be included. Other relevant points must also be credited.
Quantitative skills assessed
QS4: Construct and interpret a range of standard graphical forms
QS9: Interpret, apply and analyse information in written, graphical, tabular and numerical forms.
Knowledge, Application and Analysis ( 8 marks) - indicative content
- Housing market bubble: the price of an asset is above the true value often the result of speculation
- Explicit reference to Figure 1 e.g. prices increased 20.4% in Marlborough and 23.7% in Manawatu/Whanganui
- An average house now costs NZ$925 000
- Houses are 40% overvalued- going from 8.6 x to 10 x average income
- New Zealand PM many buyers are speculators- In 2020 approximately 15000 buyers owned five or more properties
Negative effects
- 1\% of New Zealand's population are homeless and the housing market bubble has pushed prices beyond their earnings.
- Consumers may struggle to find it affordable to buy a home when they require 10x income to purchase
- Rental prices may also rise affecting those that rent
- Problem with a housing market bubble is that it may burst
- People will realise that the houses are over-valued and there will be a correction when prices fall
- Speculators may make profits by selling at the peak- but if some waited they may make losses
- Home owners may pay a high price for the property but the true value of the property may be less
- House builders will find that profits will fall if price fall after the bubble bursts
- It may encourage illegal building which may be of a poor standard
NB Negative effects of a housing market bubble may be presented
as KAA and positive effects as evaluation or vice versa
Level
Mark
Descriptor
0
No rewardable material
Level 1
1-3
Displays isolated, superficial or imprecise knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Use of generic material or irrelevant information or inappropriate examples.
Descriptive approach, which has no chains of reasoning.
Level 2
4-6
Displays elements of knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Ability to apply knowledge and understanding to some elements of the question. Some evidence and contextual references are evident in the answer.
Chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence are evident but they may not be developed fully or some stages are omitted.
Level 3
7-8
Demonstrates accurate and precise knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Ability to link knowledge and understanding in context using relevant examples which are fully integrated to address the broad elements of the question.
Analysis is clear, coherent, relevant and focused. The answer demonstrates logical and multi-stage chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence.
Evaluation (6 marks) - indicative content
- Magnitude- a significant bubble with 40% overvalued/ 10 x income
- The price rises may reflect true value- higher real incomes, low interest rates and immigration/ limited supply
- Significant impact with higher rate of homelessness than in other developed countries
- No guarantee the bubble will burst
- Consumers may have stored/saved funds during global health crises and had more funds available helping to boost demand
Positive effects
- Existing homeowners will benefit from the increase in house prices
- Builders/ construction companies may benefit from securing higher prices- increasing their revenue and profit
- Creates an incentive for more houses to be built - 26% increase in supply in 2021
- Government may earn more tax revenue as people buy new properties
- Construction workers may benefit from increased demand for construction workers and higher wages/ more secure employment
- Those that own homes that they rent may also benefit from higher rental income
Level
Mark
Descriptor
0
No rewardable material.
Level 1
1-2
Identification of generic evaluative comments.
No supporting evidence/reference to context.
No evidence of a logical chain of reasoning.
Level 2
3-4
Evidence of evaluation of alternative approaches.
Some supporting evidence/reference to context.
Evaluation is supported by a partially-developed chain of reasoning.
Level 3
5-6
Evaluation recognises different viewpoints and/or is critical of the evidence.
Appropriate reference to evidence/context.
Evaluation is supported by a logical chain of reasoning.