Practise distinguishing actual and potential growth, interpreting output gaps and cycles and evaluating policies for sustained, inclusive and environmentally viable expansion.
The decline of South Africa's economy
South Africa is the most industrialised country in the continent of Africa but it is also an economy with much economic inequality.
Recently governments in South Africa have aimed to reduce economic inequalities by redistributing incomes and increasing both job and investment opportunities for all sections of society. Unfortunately, the reforms have been undermined through poor organisation and management. State railways, port facilities, airways and electricity production have been affected.
Government statistics for the first quarter of 2020 show that South Africa's economy contracted by 3.2 %, the biggest quarterly decline of actual economic growth in a decade (see Fig. 1.1). Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was US$6130 in December 2019, 5.8\% lower than in December 2018.
Fig. 1.1 South Africa annual growth rate, 2008 to 2019
This economic decline is reflected in the electricity supply industry, which is a state-owned monopoly. It is struggling to survive mainly due to mismanagement. For several months it rationed electricity consumption and introduced regular power cuts for households and industries. The rationing policy led to decreases in production and increases in unemployment. The company's debts added significantly to South Africa's current national debt to GDP ratio of 56\% and are seen as the biggest threat to the economy.
Further evidence of economic difficulties can be found in the mining industry, a significant part of South Africa's economy. A controversial reform was introduced to give more equality of ownership. Already facing rising costs and growing bureaucracy, many mining firms, including multinational companies, stopped investing altogether which reduced potential economic growth. The mining industry declined. Thousands of jobs were lost despite South Africa having significant deposits of platinum, gold and iron ore.
For South Africa's economy to grow it needs to address major infrastructure issues. Also, in disadvantaged communities the education system is weak contributing to a skills shortage and a rise in the unemployment rate to 27 % (see Fig. 1.2). Increased production is further hindered by restrictive trade union practices.
Fig. 1.2 South Africa's unemployment rate
Fig. 1.3 South Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows
An analyst said: 'A critical reason for low economic growth has been a lack of private sector investment and FDI (see Fig. 1.3). The lack of investment wasn't just due to the political policies but also to uncertainty and mismanagement which led to continued inequalities.'
Sources: The Daily Telegraph, 6 July 2019 and ceicdata.com
Define what is meant by actual economic growth and analyse the relationship between economic growth and unemployment as illustrated by Fig. 1.1 and Fig. 1.2.
Evaluate whether attracting investment and managing uncertainty are the most effective ways to improve the prospects for South Africa's economy.
The table shows real GDP and unemployment for an economy.
What can be concluded from the data?
Demand-pull inflation is likely to increase.
Potential output is likely to increase.
The balance of payments deficit is likely to increase.
The budget deficit is likely to increase.
The table shows the annual percentage economic growth rates of three countries from 2012 to 2018.
What can be concluded from the table?
Brazil was in the downturn of its trade cycle in 2015.
Japan's real GDP was at its smallest in 2014.
Spain experienced the worst recession of the period.
Spain was in the downturn of its trade cycle in 2014.