Using relevant information and the ratios above, analyse the likely impacts
of the disaster on BP's future financial performance.
Liquidity:
It is clear that given the ratio, BP is having a financial crisis. The acid test ratio is very low as it should be around 1 . One may argue that liquidity crisis is the main cause of financial ruin and the priority of the management should be on solving the liquidity crisis. The company is likely to see a further decline, especially if the downward trend continues, which could lead to further cash
flow problems in the future. Overall the business is in danger if a further untoward event happens.
However, one may argue that given the nature of the organization, the current ratio is perhaps more significant as oil is stocked and is likely to be sold even if demand falls. Moreover, the low acid test ratio may force the management to take more immediate action to solve the problem now. Given the low gearing ratio and the fact that it is still profitable, BP is likely to be able to secure a loan from the bank.
Gearing:
Gearing indicates that whilst the amount of borrowing compared to issuing shares is almost double that of 2008 some banks may be reluctant to lend funds to BP given the pressures from the media and pressure groups. However, BP is still a low geared organization. The management will need to monitor this ratio carefully.
Shareholder:
The fall in dividends can be attributed to the loss of assets and would worry future investors as well as existing shareholders. BP may lose out especially in the long term as the loss of potential in particular US investors may harm the growth of the business. Also it may encourage institutional investors to sell BP shares, pushing BP's share price downwards and would also make a possible "rights issue" less attractive.
However, with the appropriate PR and possibly through holding a shareholders’ meeting, the CEO and other top management could explain the reasons for the zero dividend and reassure investors of the future direction of the organization.
Profitability:
There appears to be a major decline in profitability as BP is likely to see a sharp fall in custom - particularly from US customers. Also the writing off of assets will have a major impact on expenses and therefore net profit, thus leaving less funds for reinvestment. Whilst this sharp rise in expenses is likely to be short term, the fall in sales may reflect a significant change in consumer buying patterns and so should worry BP.
Nevertheless, BP is still profitable and with the right financial and marketing strategy to pacify investors, pressure groups and the media, the fall in demand for such a price elastic good might not be as large as expected. Still, one may argue that the dangerously low acid test ratio is much more significant for BP and highly likely to negatively affect their financial performance.
Marks should be allocated according to the markbands on page 3.
To reach the top markband all four ratios (liquidity, gearing, shareholder and profitability) should be analysed.
N.B. If a candidate only describes the changes in the ratios award a maximum of [3 marks].