IB Business Management HL 6.1.6 Decision trees Question Bank
Practise IB Business Management SL/HL 6.1.6 by applying decision trees concepts to exam-style questions.
- Syllabus
- First assessment 2024
- Course
- Business management HL
- Level
- HL
Practise IB Business Management SL/HL 6.1.6 by applying decision trees concepts to exam-style questions.
Safe Passage (SP)
Trent Peters is one of seven partners at Safe Passage (SP). It provides bodyguard* services to film stars, politicians and other important people in Europe and the Americas. Trent would like to satisfy a growing demand from Asia but has to choose from two options for the recruitment and training of bodyguards. These are:
- offshoring by setting up it's own overseas branch in Asian country X or Y or Z
- subcontracting by using an external agency in Asian country X or Y or Z .
The forecast costs and revenues of offshoring are given below (all figures in US$ millions):

The forecast costs of subcontracting to the same Asian countries are given below:
Country X: US$1.5 million.
Country Y: US$2.8 million.
Country Z: US$4.2 million.
\footnotetext{
* bodyguard: a person who is responsible for protecting a person from harm
}
The three suitable Asian countries are located in earthquake zones. An earthquake expert assured Trent that all three areas are safe. Trent is concerned and decides to prepare a contingency plan for each possible location in Asia.
Control over recruitment and training of bodyguards is vital to S P. Customer service and trust are their unique selling propositions (USP). Clients will pay high fees to ensure their safe transport to concerts, meetings and important events. However, Trent is refusing valuable contracts in Asia due to a lack of suitably trained bodyguards. As a result S P is missing out on large profits.
Trent has mentioned to a previous customer of his plans to subcontract the recruitment and training of bodyguards. She has threatened not to use S P again and would tell her friends if the plans went ahead. Trent is concerned as word-of-mouth promotion is crucial to S P.
He calls a meeting of all the partners. Three partners prefer subcontracting the recruitment and training as it is cheaper, quicker and less risky. The three other partners prefer offshoring. They believe that subcontracting will damage SP's USP. They argue that the higher costs of offshoring will be covered by the forecast high revenue.
Construct a fully labelled decision tree and calculate the predicted outcome of each offshoring option (show all your working).
Key: decision point; possible outcomes.
EMV of Option 1: (19×0.3)+(2×0.7)=7.1 m. Subtracting the US$4m cost gives US$3.1m.
EMV of Option 2: (16×0.3)+(4×0.7)=7.6 m. Subtracting the US$5m cost gives US$2.6m.
EMV of Option 3: (21×0.3)+(4.2×0.7)=9.24 m. Subtracting the US$6.4m cost gives US$2.84m.
The decision tree should show the decision point, all possible outcomes and their probabilities, and the three calculated EMVs.
Comment on the value for SP of using a decision tree as a decision-making tool.
The decision tree will allow SP to:
- visually represent all possible offshoring options
- quantify the outcomes of each option in terms of expected values compared to cost
- incorporate the probabilities of the outcomes
- decide on an appropriate course of action based on quantitative factors only.
Given the substantial non-financial factors in the stimulus (such as the level of earthquake risk) surrounding the contingency plan, the lack of non-financial considerations of the decision tree calculations reduces the value of the decision tree to SP as a decision-making tool.
Accept any other relevant comment.
N.B. It is not expected that the candidate produce a balanced response.
Apply candidate Own Figure Rule (OFR).
Award up to a maximum of [3 marks] for at least two relevant comments.
Award up to a maximum of [2 marks] if there is no relevant application to S P.