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A-Level CAIE Mathematics A26.1 The Poisson distributionQuestion Bank

Question 1

[Maximum number: 4]

The random variable X has the distribution B(4000,0.001).

Question 1(a)

(a)

Use a suitable approximating distribution to find P(2X<5)\mathrm{P}(2 \leqslant X<5).

[ 3 ]

Question 1(b)

(b)

Justify your approximating distribution in this case.

[ 1 ]

Question 1

[Maximum number: 5]

A random variable X has the distribution Po(145).

Question 1(a)

(a)

Use a suitable approximating distribution to calculate P(X150)\mathrm{P}(X \leqslant 150).

[ 4 ]

Question 1(b)

(b)

Justify the use of your approximating distribution in this case.

[ 1 ]

Question 3

[Maximum number: 4]

In a certain lottery, on average 1 in every 10000 tickets is a prize-winning ticket. An agent sells 6000 tickets.

Question 3(a)

(a)

Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that at least 3 of the tickets sold by the agent are prize-winning tickets.

[ 3 ]

Question 3(b)

(b)

Justify the use of your approximating distribution in this context.

[ 1 ]

Question 5

[Maximum number: 8]

Sales of cell phones at a certain shop occur singly, randomly and independently.

Question 5(a)

(a)

State one further condition that must be satisfied for the number of sales in a certain time period to be well modelled by a Poisson distribution.

The average number of sales per hour is 1.2 .
Assume now that a Poisson distribution is a suitable model.

[ 1 ]

Question 5(b)

(b)

Find the probability that the number of sales during a randomly chosen 12 -hour period will be more than 12 and less than 16 .

[ 3 ]

Question 5(c)

(c)

Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that the number of sales during a randomly chosen 1 -month period ( 140 hours) will be less than 150 .

[ 4 ]

Question 5

[Maximum number: 4]

A teacher models the numbers of girls and boys who arrive late for her class on any day by the independent random variables GPo(0.10)G \sim \operatorname{Po}(0.10) and BPo(0.15)B \sim \operatorname{Po}(0.15) respectively.

Question 5(a)

(a)

Find the probability that during a randomly chosen 2-day period no girls arrive late.

[ 1 ]

Question 5(c)

(b)

It is given that the values of P(G=r) and P(B=r) for r3r \geqslant 3 are very small and can be ignored.

Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day more girls arrive late than boys.
Following a timetable change the teacher claims that on average more students arrive late than before the change. During a randomly chosen 5-day period a total of 4 students are late.

[ 3 ]

Question 7

[Maximum number: 4]

Every July, as part of a research project, Rita collects data about sightings of a particular kind of bird. Each day in July she notes whether she sees this kind of bird or not, and she records the number X of days on which she sees it. She models the distribution of X by B(31, p), where p is the probability of seeing this kind of bird on a randomly chosen day in July.

Data from previous years suggests that p=0.3, but in 2022 Rita suspected that the value of p had been reduced. She decided to carry out a hypothesis test.

In July 2022, she saw this kind of bird on 4 days.

Question 7(c)

Question 7(c)(i)

(a)
(i)

Use a suitable approximating distribution to find P(Y=4).

[ 3 ]

Question 7(c)(ii)

(ii)

Justify your approximating distribution in this context.

[ 1 ]
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