IB Maths AI HL Sl 4 5 Probability Basics Questions

Practise defining trials, outcomes, events and sample spaces, calculating probabilities or expected frequencies, and checking validity in context.

Syllabus
First assessment 2021
Course
Mathematics: applications and interpretation HL
Level
HL

Exam points

  • Define trial, outcome, sample space, event and relative frequency, and represent a sample space with a list or table.
  • Calculate probabilities, complements and expected numbers of occurrences from equally likely outcomes.
  • Check that probabilities are valid and interpret the result in the stated experiment or context.

IB Maths AI HL Sl 4 5 Probability Basics Questions question 1

[Maximum number: 5]

This question is about applying ideas from logarithms, calculus and probability to an unfamiliar mathematical theory called information theory.
Claude Shannon developed a mathematical theory called information theory to measure the information gained when random events occur. He defined the information, I, that is gained when an event with probability p occurs as

I=lnpI=-\ln p

where 0<p10<p \leq 1. For example, no information is gained ( I=0 ) when an event is certain to occur(p=1)\operatorname{occur}(p=1).

Question (a)

(a)

A computer selects at random an integer x from 1 to 10, inclusive. Each outcome is equally likely.

Alessia is trying to determine the value of x and asks if x is odd.

[ 5 ]

Question (i)

(i)

Write down the probability that x is odd.

[ 1 ]

Question (ii)

(ii)

Alessia is told that x is odd. Find how much information Alessia gains.

The computer then selects at random an integer y from 1 to 10 , inclusive. Each outcome is equally likely.

Daniel is trying to determine the value of y and asks if y is 7 . He is told that it is not 7 .

[ 2 ]

Question (iii)

(iii)

Find how much information Daniel gains.

If a random variable has n possible outcomes with probabilities p1,p2pnp_{1}, p_{2} \ldots p_{n}, then the expected information gained, E(I), is defined as

E(I)=r=1nprlnpr\mathrm{E}(I)=\sum_{r=1}^{n}-p_{r} \ln p_{r}
[ 2 ]
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