IB Maths AI HL 4.2 Statistics and Probability Ahl Content Questions

Practise IB Mathematics AI HL 4.2 by analysing advanced probability models, distributions, inference, regression and technology output.

Syllabus
First assessment 2021
Course
Mathematics: applications and interpretation HL
Level
HL

Exam points

  • Design valid data-collection instruments, categorise variables and evaluate reliability, validity and test assumptions.
  • Fit and compare non-linear regression models using residual sums and R², interpreting parameters and limitations.
  • Transform expectations and variances and use linear combinations, estimators, sample means and the central limit theorem.
  • Construct and interpret normal/t confidence intervals for population means, choosing the correct known/unknown-σ method.
  • Select Poisson/binomial/normal/t models and conduct advanced tests for means, proportions or correlation, including error risks.
  • Use transition matrices and Markov chains to model states, matrix powers, steady states and long-run probabilities.

Question 1

[Maximum number: 4]

Juliet is a sociologist who wants to investigate if income affects happiness amongst doctors. This question asks you to review Juliet's methods and conclusions.
Juliet obtained a list of email addresses of doctors who work in her city. She contacted them and asked them to fill in an anonymous questionnaire. Participants were asked to state their annual income and to respond to a set of questions. The responses were used to determine a happiness score out of 100 . Of the 415 doctors on the list, 11 replied.

Question (a)

(a)

Describe one criticism that can be made about the validity of Juliet's investigation.

Juliet's results are summarized in the following table.

Table for Question (a) — IB Maths AI HL
[ 1 ]

Question (b)

(b)

Juliet wants to create a model to predict how changing annual income might affect happiness scores. To do this, she assumes that annual income in dollars, X, is the independent variable and the happiness score, Y, is the dependent variable.

She first considers a linear model of the form

Y=a X+b
[ 3 ]

Question (i)

(i)

Find the coefficient of determination for each of the two models she considers.

[ 2 ]

Question (ii)

(ii)

Hence compare the two models.

Juliet decides to use the coefficient of determination to choose between these two models.

[ 1 ]

Question 2

[Maximum number: 13]

Taylor is playing a computer game in which they shoot at spaceships and battleships. The number of spaceships they hit per minute can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 4.2. The number of battleships they hit per minute can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.3. Any single hit occurs independently of all others.

Question (a)

(a)

Find the probability Taylor hits

[ 5 ]

Question (i)

(i)

at most 10 spaceships in 2 minutes.

[ 2 ]

Question (ii)

(ii)

a total of more than 10 spaceships and battleships in one minute.

[ 3 ]

Question (b)

(b)

Every spaceship that is hit earns Taylor 3 points and every battleship 5 points. Let T be the total points earned in one minute.

Find

[ 3 ]

Question (i)

(i)

E(T).

[ 1 ]

Question (ii)

(ii)

Var⁡(T)\quad \operatorname{Var}(T).

[ 2 ]

Question (c)

(c)

State one reason why the distribution of T cannot be Poisson.

[ 1 ]

Question (d)

(d)

Taylor intends to play the game for one hour.

Use the central limit theorem to find the probability that Taylor's mean score per minute is greater than 25 .

[ 4 ]

Question 3

[Maximum number: 7]

A random sample of eight packets of Apollo coffee granules are selected from a supermarket shelf.
The weights of the coffee granules present in each packet are as follows:
222 g226 g221 g228 g227 g225 g222 g223 g222 \mathrm{~g} \quad 226 \mathrm{~g} \quad 221 \mathrm{~g} \quad 228 \mathrm{~g} \quad 227 \mathrm{~g} \quad 225 \mathrm{~g} \quad 222 \mathrm{~g} \quad 223 \mathrm{~g}

Question (a)

(a)

Find an unbiased estimate for the mean weight of coffee granules in a packet of Apollo coffee.

[ 1 ]

Question (b)

(b)

Calculate a 95 % confidence interval for the population mean. Give your answer to four significant figures.

[ 3 ]

Question (c)

(c)

State one assumption you have made in order for your interval to be valid.

[ 1 ]

Question (d)

(d)

The label of each packet has a description which includes the phrase: "contains 226 g of coffee granules".

Using your answer to part (a)(ii), briefly comment on the claim on the label.

[ 2 ]

Question 4

[Maximum number: 1]

Juliet is a sociologist who wants to investigate if income affects happiness amongst doctors. This question asks you to review Juliet's methods and conclusions.
Juliet obtained a list of email addresses of doctors who work in her city. She contacted them and asked them to fill in an anonymous questionnaire. Participants were asked to state their annual income and to respond to a set of questions. The responses were used to determine a happiness score out of 100 . Of the 415 doctors on the list, 11 replied.

Describe one criticism that can be made about the validity of Juliet's investigation.

Juliet's results are summarized in the following table.

Table for Question 4 — IB Maths AI HL

Question 5

[Maximum number: 4]

Taylor is playing a computer game in which they shoot at spaceships and battleships. The number of spaceships they hit per minute can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean 4.2. The number of battleships they hit per minute can be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.3. Any single hit occurs independently of all others.

Taylor intends to play the game for one hour.

Use the central limit theorem to find the probability that Taylor's mean score per minute is greater than 25 .

Question 6

[Maximum number: 4]

A firm wishes to review its recruitment processes. This question considers the validity and reliability of the methods used.
Every year an accountancy firm recruits new employees for a trial period of one year from a large group of applicants.
At the start, all applicants are interviewed and given a rating. Those with a rating of either Excellent, Very good or Good are recruited for the trial period. At the end of this period, some of the new employees will stay with the firm.
It is decided to test how valid the interview rating is as a way of predicting which of the new employees will stay with the firm.
Data is collected and recorded in a contingency table.

Table for Question 6 — IB Maths AI HL

For the data in this table, test the null hypothesis, H0:ρ=0\mathrm{H}_{0}: \rho=0, against the alternative hypothesis, H1:ρ>0\mathrm{H}_{1}: \rho>0, at the 5 % significance level. You may assume that all the requirements for carrying out the test have been met.

Question 7

[Maximum number: 5]

A geneticist uses a Markov chain model to investigate changes in a specific gene in a cell as it divides. Every time the cell divides, the gene may mutate between its normal state and other states.
The model is of the form

(Xn+1Zn+1)=M(XnZn)\binom{X_{n+1}}{Z_{n+1}}=\boldsymbol{M}\binom{X_n}{Z_n}

where XnX_n is the probability of the gene being in its normal state after dividing for the nth time, and ZnZ_n is the probability of it being in another state after dividing for the nth time, where n∈Nn\in\mathbb{N}.
Matrix M\boldsymbol{M} is found to be (0.94b0.060.98)\left(\begin{smallmatrix}0.94&b\\0.06&0.98\end{smallmatrix}\right).

Question (a)

(a)

What does b represent in this context?

[ 1 ]

Question (b)

(b)

The gene is in its normal state when n=0. Calculate the probability of it being in its normal state

[ 4 ]

Question (i)

(i)

when n=5;

[ 2 ]

Question (ii)

(ii)

in the long term.

[ 2 ]
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