IB ESS SL 8.1 Human Populations Questions

Practise IB ESS SL 8.1 by calculating population change, interpreting demographic structures and evaluating direct and indirect population policies.

Exam points

Calculate natural increase and doubling time or interpret fertility-rate data, with required units.
Read or draw age-sex pyramids to describe population structure and infer future change.
Compare population projections and explain how fertility assumptions shape the range of scenarios.
Identify DTM stages from birth/death patterns and assess where the model fits or falls short.
Evaluate direct and indirect population policies using named examples and their demographic effects.

Covered syllabus points

8.1.1—Population inputs 8.1.2—Population outputs 8.1.3—Population dynamics metrics 8.1.4—Global population growth models 8.1.5—Direct population policies 8.1.6—Indirect population policies 8.1.7—Age-sex pyramids 8.1.8—Demographic transition model

[Maximum number: 9]

Figure 1: Crude birth rate, crude death rate, total population (1960-2024) and predicted total population (2025-2100) for South Korea

(a)

Year	Crude birth rate
1980
2024

Using Figure 1, state the crude birth rate (CBR) of South Korea in 1980 and 2024.

[ 2 ]

Year	Crude birth rate
1980	22.5–23
2024	5

(b)

Using Figure 1, calculate the natural increase rate (NIR) in 1980.

[ 1 ]

(c)

Explain which stage of the demographic transition model South Korea was in during 1980.

[ 2 ]

(d)

Outline two national development policies that might have contributed to the changes in the crude birth rates in South Korea between 1960 and 2024.

[ 2 ]

(e)

Sketch the shape of the age–gender pyramid for 2024 that would lead to the predicted total population changes from 2024 to 2100, as shown in Figure 1.

[ 2 ]

[Maximum number: 2]

Population	5157100
Live births	58887
Deaths	38574
Total fertility rate	1.66 children per woman

Table:Population statistics for New Zealand, 2022

(a)

With reference to Figure 6, calculate the crude death rate (CDR) per 1000 people for the year 2022.

[ 1 ]

$\frac{38\,574}{5\,157\,100}\times 1000=7.48$ ; 7.5 (/1000/year);

Note to examiners: Do not accept improper rounding/no rounding.

(b)

Outline how the total fertility rate of New Zealand shown in Figure 6 will influence its future population.

[ 1 ]

[Maximum number: 13]

(a)

Outline the similarities and differences between crude birth rate and natural increase rate.

[ 4 ]

(b)

To what extent can population policies lead to a stable human population?

[ 9 ]

Answers may demonstrate:
- understanding concepts & terminology of population policies; development policies; anti-natalist/pro-natalist; China's one child policy; female emancipation; gender equality; contraception; child benefit/child tax; population pyramids; population momentum; demographic transition; sustainable development; limiting factors; carrying capacity; S-J curves; DTM; demographic tools (CBR, CDR, TFR, DT, NIR);
- breadth in addressing a range of population and development policies and linking them to their impact on the stability of various human populations and comparing their success.
- examples of relevant national & international population policies and their degree of success in stabilising the population;
- balanced analysis comparing various population policies from a range of countries and evaluating the extent to which these policies managed to effectively stabilise the population on which they were implemented.
- a conclusion that is consistent with, and supported by analysis and examples given e.g. Economic incentives and disincentives can be effective in curbing the growth of human populations, but, generally, the most effective means of stabilising growth seems to come naturally with the development of populations, as evidenced by the relatively stable MEDC populations.

Note to examiners: There is a definition in literature of stable population having stable (=constant) demographics, i.e. CBR, CDR, age structure, but also NIR! Thus it contradicts the definition of a stable population as one with a constant population size (CBR = CDR). Do not penalize the former, although, most probably will lead to convoluted analysis. A response should not earn the higher MBs, unless addressing the latter definition.

Marks	Level descriptor
0	The response does not reach a standard described by the descriptors below and is not relevant to the question.
1–3	The response contains: • minimal evidence of knowledge and understanding of ESS issues or concepts • fragmented knowledge statements poorly linked to the context of the question • some appropriate use of ESS terminology • no examples where required, or examples with insufficient explanation/relevance • superficial analysis that amounts to no more than a list of facts/ideas • judgments/conclusions that are vague or not supported by evidence/argument.
4–6	The response contains: • some evidence of sound knowledge and understanding of ESS issues and concepts • knowledge statements effectively linked to the context of the question • largely appropriate use of ESS terminology • some use of relevant examples where required, but with limited explanation • clear analysis that shows a degree of balance • some clear judgments/conclusions, supported by limited evidence/arguments.
7–9	The response contains: • substantial evidence of sound knowledge and understanding of ESS issues and concepts • a wide breadth of knowledge statements effectively linked with each other, and to the context of the question • consistently appropriate and precise use of ESS terminology • effective use of pertinent, well-explained examples, where required, showing some originality • thorough, well-balanced, insightful analysis • explicit judgments/conclusions that are well-supported by evidence/arguments and that include some critical reflection.

Assessment criteria for the 9-mark extended response

[Maximum number: 2]

Figure 1: Crude birth rate, crude death rate, total population (1960-2024) and predicted total population (2025-2100) for South Korea

Year	Crude birth rate
1980
2024

Using Figure 1, state the crude birth rate (CBR) of South Korea in 1980 and 2024.

Year	Crude birth rate
1980	22.5–23
2024	5

[Maximum number: 1]

Population	5157100
Live births	58887
Deaths	38574
Total fertility rate	1.66 children per woman

Table:Population statistics for New Zealand, 2022

With reference to Figure 6, calculate the crude death rate (CDR) per 1000 people for the year 2022.

$\frac{38\,574}{5\,157\,100}\times 1000=7.48$ ; 7.5 (/1000/year);

Note to examiners: Do not accept improper rounding/no rounding.

[Maximum number: 4]

Outline the similarities and differences between crude birth rate and natural increase rate.

[Maximum number: 3]

Figure:World population figures, 1950–2019, and predictions for 2020–2100

Figure:Countries and regions where population decreased by at least 1% between 2010 and 2019

(a)

Using Figure 3(a), identify the year in which the median prediction of the world population will reach 10 billion.

[ 1 ]

(b)

Outline one reason for the uncertainty in predicting the world’s population in Figure 3(a).

[ 1 ]

(c)

Using Figure 3(b), identify the region that has the most countries with a decrease in the percentage change in population between 2010 and 2019.

[ 1 ]

[Maximum number: 2]

Figure:World population growth, 1750–2050

Figure 2 shows world population growth from 1750 to 2050.

With reference to a named example, explain why a national government may choose not to attempt to control the growth of its population.

[Maximum number: 2]

Figure 1: Crude birth rate, crude death rate, total population (1960-2024) and predicted total population (2025-2100) for South Korea

Outline two national development policies that might have contributed to the changes in the crude birth rates in South Korea between 1960 and 2024.

[Maximum number: 2]

Figure 1: Crude birth rate, crude death rate, total population (1960-2024) and predicted total population (2025-2100) for South Korea

Sketch the shape of the age–gender pyramid for 2024 that would lead to the predicted total population changes from 2024 to 2100, as shown in Figure 1.

[Maximum number: 2]

Figure 1: Crude birth rate, crude death rate, total population (1960-2024) and predicted total population (2025-2100) for South Korea

Explain which stage of the demographic transition model South Korea was in during 1980.

All question bank results loaded

Covered syllabus points

Question 1

Question (a)

Question (b)

Question (c)

Question (d)

Question (e)

Question 2

Question (a)

Question (b)

Question 3

Question (a)

Question (b)

Question 4

Question 5

Question 6

Question 7

Question (a)

Question (b)

Question (c)

Question 8

Question 9

Question 10

Question 11