Topic 6: Atmosphere and climate change

Syllabus
First assessment 2026
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Topic 6.1

6.1 Introduction to the atmosphere

Objectives in this topic

Treat the Atmosphere as a Living Boundary

The atmosphere is a gaseous boundary coupled to Earth’s surface, not a solid lid; it supplies gases, pressure, energy regulation and radiation filtering.

Focus on exchanges with biosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere: gases, particles, water and energy cross the boundary. Most weather and water vapour are in lower layers.

Evaporation moves water from ocean to atmosphere; precipitation returns it to the hydrosphere.

The atmosphere is coupled through ongoing flows and has no sharp solid edge.

Do not list functions without naming the exchange that supports life.

Move Heat Away from the Equator

Unequal solar heating creates pressure and temperature contrasts; rising, sinking and rotating air redistribute energy through idealized Hadley, Ferrel and Polar cells.

Warm air expands and rises, cool air sinks, and pressure gradients move air. The cells help explain wind and rainfall belts, but they do not erase temperature differences.

More direct equatorial sunlight warms air that rises and transports energy poleward aloft before descending elsewhere.

To explain broad circulation and energy transport, not predict every local wind or storm.

The three-cell model is idealized; mountains, seasons and oceans modify real circulation.

Classify a Gas or Particle by Its Radiation Path

Greenhouse gases absorb outgoing infrared radiation; aerosols are suspended particles that scatter or absorb radiation.

Water vapour, CO2, methane and nitrous oxide absorb and re-emit outgoing infrared radiation. CO2 and water vapour are abundant greenhouse gases, while methane also has a strong warming effect. Many aerosols scatter sunlight; black carbon absorbs radiation and can darken snow or ice.

CO₂ is a greenhouse gas; soot on snow is black carbon aerosol that lowers albedo. Both affect radiation, but through different classes.

Classify by physical form and radiation pathway. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas but its atmospheric abundance responds dynamically to temperature, so it is usually treated as a feedback rather than a direct mitigation target.

‘Warms’ does not identify the category; classify by physical form and mechanism.

Separate the Natural and Enhanced Greenhouse Effects

The natural greenhouse effect makes Earth habitable; human increases in long-lived greenhouse gases enhance it and warm the climate.

Short-wave sunlight enters; the surface emits long-wave infrared; gases absorb and re-emit some energy. Extra GHGs require a warmer surface–troposphere system to restore balance. Global warming is temperature trend; climate change includes wider responses.

Adding CO₂ does not add sunlight; it slows outgoing infrared, so equilibrium is restored at a higher mean temperature.

Specify natural versus enhanced effect and the short-wave/long-wave energy pathway.

The atmosphere does not warm by trapping all heat forever; energy still leaves, but the balance shifts.

Topic 6.2

6.2 Climate change—causes and impacts

Objectives in this topic

Use the Time Window to Separate Weather from Climate

Weather is a short-term atmospheric state; climate is a long-term pattern described by averages, ranges or frequencies.

Classify the observation by time window and statistic. Temperature and precipitation are core seasonal variables, but climate also includes variability and extremes.

Today’s storm is weather; a 30-year rise in summer rainfall variability is climate evidence.

No. It is weather noise; test the long-term distribution.

Climate is not a single average temperature and weather is not irrelevant—it is the data climate summarizes.

Concentration Falls Only When Removal Beats Emissions

Emissions are a flow added over time; atmospheric CO₂ concentration is the stock left after emissions and natural removals are combined.

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions began raising atmospheric concentration from the Industrial Revolution in late 18th-century Europe; the global emission rate accelerated especially after 1950 as industrialization and population increased. Concentration still rises whenever total emissions exceed ocean and ecosystem removal.

If annual emissions fall but remain greater than removals, atmospheric CO2 continues to increase more slowly; concentration falls only when removals exceed emissions for long enough.

Use both views: the historical timeline identifies the human source, while the stock–flow balance explains why slower emissions growth is not the same as falling concentration.

Do not confuse a lower inflow with a smaller stock. A bathtub still fills when the tap slows unless the drain removes water faster than the tap adds it.

Read the Proxy before the Trend

A proxy is an indirect record of past climate; interpret its measured variable before claiming a temperature trend.

Ice cores preserve past gas concentrations and isotopic evidence; tree rings record growth conditions; deposited sediments preserve layered biological or chemical signals. Together, records spanning the past 800,000 years show glacial-cycle co-variation between atmospheric CO2 and global temperature.

A narrow tree ring may reflect drought, cold or another stress, so calibrate each proxy and compare independent records before attributing a temperature change.

Check dating, calibration, local representativeness and missing intervals. Positive CO2-temperature correlation supports a relationship but does not by itself identify the full causal mechanism.

A positive correlation is evidence of co-variation, not proof that one proxy caused the other.

Order the Climate-Change Causal Chain

The chain is natural greenhouse effect → human enhancement → warming → changes in climate hazards and impacts.

Short-wave sunlight enters; outgoing infrared is absorbed by added GHGs; energy balance shifts until the system warms. Impacts then depend on circulation, water, ice, ecosystems and society.

More CO₂ slows infrared loss, raises temperature, then increases heat extremes and water stress in some regions.

As an observed hazard/impact, not as the cause of greenhouse-gas forcing.

Do not jump from emissions to one local impact without the intermediate physical and social mechanisms.

Judge Climate Impact by Scale and Resilience

Climate change alters ecosystems from local sites to global circulation, affecting resilience and sometimes shifting biome boundaries.

Scale Example mechanism and impact Resilience question
Local ecosystem marine heat stress can cause coral bleaching; drying can promote desertification can biodiversity and recovery processes restore function before repeated stress?
Regional/biome changed temperature and precipitation can shift productivity and biome distribution are species able to move or adapt fast enough?
Global ice melt raises sea level; warming can alter ocean circulation do reinforcing changes reduce recovery options across systems?

Some cooler regions may gain a longer growing season or higher productivity, while heat- or water-limited systems lose productivity; evaluate location, season and biodiversity rather than a global average alone.

Trace climate driver → ecosystem exposure → biological mechanism → impact → resilience or biome response at a stated scale.

A local benefit does not cancel unequal global harm, and one ecosystem example cannot define every region's response.

Turn a Climate Hazard into an Impact Chain

A hazard becomes an impact through exposure and vulnerability; recovery depends on infrastructure, health, income, governance and social support.

Trace hazard → exposed people or assets → mechanism → sector outcome → capacity to recover. Relevant sectors include health, water supply, agriculture and infrastructure, and the same hazard can produce different outcomes across socioeconomic conditions.

A heatwave may raise illness, water demand and crop stress while damaging transport or power systems; early warning, robust services, income and governance can reduce losses and speed recovery.

A physical event becomes a social impact only when people, livelihoods or infrastructure are exposed; resilience depends on resources, institutions and social support.

Recovery capacity is not a moral trait; it reflects resources, institutions, exposure and historical inequality.

Draw the Feedback, Not Just the Climate Fact

A feedback is a change in output that alters the original input or process; positive amplifies, negative dampens.

Use input → process → output → feedback. Less ice lowers albedo and increases absorbed sunlight; warming can thaw permafrost and release methane, adding forcing. Label sign, not just sequence.

Ice loss → darker ocean → more absorbed energy → further ice loss is positive feedback.

No. It means the initial change is amplified; the outcome can be harmful or helpful depending on context.

A correlation or chain is not a feedback until the output returns to alter the system.

Treat a Boundary as Rising Risk, Not a Local Tipping Point

The climate-change planetary boundary is a proposed safe-operating-space limit for Earth-system pressure; published evidence suggests that this boundary has already been passed.

Evaluate which climate indicators and control variables the source uses, the reference period, spatial scale and uncertainty. Transgression means rising systemic risk, not a guaranteed date of collapse.

If an assessed climate indicator lies beyond its proposed safe range, that supports boundary transgression; a separate mechanism and local evidence are still needed to claim that a particular ecosystem has crossed a tipping point.

Report the source, indicator definition, threshold method and uncertainty before accepting or challenging the assertion.

Boundary transgression is not synonymous with certain irreversible collapse.

Use Perspective to Explain Response, Not Physical Evidence

Perspectives shape which risks, values and solutions people prioritize; they do not replace physical evidence about climate processes.

An ecocentric view may prioritize ecosystem integrity; an anthropocentric view may prioritize livelihoods; a technocentric view may favour engineered solutions. Test each response against the same evidence.

Two groups accept the same drought data but prefer restoration versus desalination because they value different risks and controls.

No. It changes interpretation, priorities or decisions, not the observation itself.

Calling a perspective ‘biased’ does not evaluate its evidence; separate values, facts and proposed action.

Topic 6.3

6.3 Climate change—mitigation and adaptation

Objectives in this topic

Match Shared Atmosphere to Shared Action

Because emissions cross borders, effective climate action needs shared goals, reporting, finance and implementation while states retain sovereignty.

Treaties and negotiations coordinate contributions; sanctions or border measures may reduce free-riding but raise equity and sovereignty questions. Separate scientific evidence from political agreement.

A national emissions cut can reduce global forcing, but verification and finance determine whether other states trust and join the effort.

Others’ emissions and land decisions still affect the shared atmosphere; cooperation addresses spillovers.

Global cooperation does not erase national responsibility or justify ignoring unequal capacity.

Treat Net Zero as a Balance, Not Zero Activity

Decarbonization reduces or ends CO2-emitting energy use and replaces it with renewable energy. Carbon neutrality or net zero balances any remaining emissions with removals inside a stated boundary.

Prioritize absolute cuts through efficiency, electrification, renewable substitution and demand change. Then test residual removals for permanence, leakage, scope, timing and offset dependence.

A company cuts 80 tonnes but emits 20; it needs 20 tonnes of durable verified removal for net zero under the stated boundary.

States set different target dates, so compare boundary, interim gross reductions, renewable replacement and the credibility of residual removals.

Net zero is a balance condition; it does not license unlimited ongoing emissions.

Classify Mitigation by the Part It Changes

Mitigation can change the warming process, reduce greenhouse-gas production, or remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Category At least two examples Main evaluation boundary
Reduce the warming process household surface/energy changes; large-scale solar-radiation geoengineering symptom versus cause, side effects and governance
Reduce GHG production energy efficiency and renewables; food/agriculture change or carbon tax lifecycle emissions, rebound, affordability and leakage
Remove atmospheric CO2 rewilding or afforestation; carbon capture and storage permanence, saturation, land/energy demand and monitoring

Replacing coal with renewable electricity reduces a source; restoring forest removes and stores carbon but that store can be reversed by fire or clearance.

Prefer source reduction where feasible, then evaluate complementary process changes and removals without double counting.

A mitigation label does not prove net benefit; apply a complete lifecycle, permanence and equity boundary.

Adapt to the Hazard You Actually Have

Adaptation reduces adverse effects or captures benefits by changing exposure, vulnerability or infrastructure for a specific climate hazard.

Category Examples Key trade-off
Structural flood defences; desalination plants; movable infrastructure cost, maintenance, energy and displaced risk
Non-structural drought-resistant crops; vaccination; land zoning; building-code change access, enforcement, behavior and changing future hazards

A seawall may protect one district but increase erosion nearby; zoning or movable infrastructure may reduce exposure instead, while desalination can improve water security but add energy and brine impacts.

Match at least two options from each category to hazard, people, timescale, finance and possible maladaptation.

Adaptation is not a universal technology list; a measure can shift risk or lock in future vulnerability.

Turn Adaptation Planning into a Learning Loop

An adaptation plan cycles through risk assessment, priority setting, implementation, monitoring and revision across individual, community and national scales.

National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) let vulnerable low-income countries identify urgent local priorities and seek support through the UN development process.

Bangladesh's NAPA identifies coastal embankments and flood shelters for sea-level and flood risk, plus improved irrigation and drought-resistant crops if monsoon rains fail.

A plan is successful only if financed actions reduce risk equitably; monitor access and outcomes, then revise priorities as climate and society change.

A NAPA or local plan is a decision process, not proof that adaptation has succeeded.

Topic 6.4

6.4 Stratospheric ozone

Objectives in this topic

Use Wavelength to Order Radiation Energy

Solar electromagnetic radiation spans low-frequency radio waves through infrared, visible light and ultraviolet to high-frequency gamma radiation; shorter wavelength means higher frequency and photon energy.

Infrared transfers heat, visible light powers photosynthesis and supports vision, and ultraviolet can drive atmospheric chemistry but damage biological molecules at higher-energy bands.

UV-C has shorter wavelength and higher photon energy than visible red light.

Order by wavelength or frequency, then identify the biosphere process that actually absorbs or uses each band.

Brighter light is not automatically higher-energy light per photon.

Link UV Damage to Energy and Dose

UV harm depends on photon energy and dose; ozone blocks most UV-C and much UV-B, while UV-A reaches the surface more readily.

Higher-energy UV can damage DNA and tissue; total dose depends on intensity and exposure time. Ozone absorption changes the spectrum reaching organisms.

A short intense UV exposure can deliver similar dose to a longer weak exposure, but band and shielding still determine damage mechanism.

More biologically damaging UV-B/C can reach the surface; dose, behaviour and band determine actual risk.

UV index is not a direct measure of ozone alone; sun angle, clouds, altitude and surface reflection also matter.

Treat Ozone as a Dynamic UV Shield

Stratospheric ozone absorbs damaging UV, reducing the dose that reaches surface organisms while being continually formed and destroyed.

Ozone forms when UV splits O₂ and oxygen atoms combine with O₂; other reactions destroy it. Location matters: stratospheric ozone shields, near-surface ozone is a pollutant.

A temporary fall in stratospheric ozone can raise surface UV even if total atmospheric oxygen is unchanged.

It must be present in the stratosphere where it intercepts relevant UV before it reaches the surface.

‘Ozone’ is not always beneficial; location and concentration determine whether it shields or harms.

Trace Two Effects of Reduced Ozone

Less stratospheric ozone increases surface UV, creating separate health/DNA and ecosystem/photosynthesis pathways.

UV can damage DNA, causing mutations and increasing cancer risk; in humans it contributes to sunburn, premature skin ageing and cataracts. It can also reduce phytoplankton photosynthesis and change food-web productivity.

A rise in surface UVB can affect exposed skin and eyes while separately reducing phytoplankton photosynthesis; each pathway needs its own receptor and evidence.

Name the receptor, UV exposure and mechanism—photosynthetic inhibition, DNA damage, skin injury or lens damage.

More UV does not produce one identical impact in every species or habitat.

Recognize a Busy Dynamic Equilibrium

Equal formation and destruction rates can keep ozone concentration steady while reactions continue constantly.

Ozone concentration can remain stable when concurrent formation and destruction occur at equal rates. If destruction becomes faster without matching formation, concentration falls until the rate balance changes again.

A measured steady ozone concentration can therefore hide continuous molecular formation and destruction; the observation alone does not mean reactions have stopped.

Compare formation and destruction rates first, then infer whether ozone concentration rises, falls or remains steady.

A stable concentration does not prove no chemical reactions are occurring.

Separate Ozone-Depleting and Warming Pathways

An ozone-depleting substance changes stratospheric chemistry; CO₂-driven warming changes infrared energy balance. Some gases can affect both, but mechanisms differ.

CFCs release chlorine radicals that catalytically destroy ozone and also have high greenhouse potential. CO₂ does not deplete ozone through that chlorine cycle.

Replacing CFCs protects ozone; reducing CO₂ addresses long-wave forcing. One policy can help both only if the substance and mechanism overlap.

Ozone chemistry and greenhouse forcing are different problems, even when a refrigerant policy affects both.

‘Atmospheric chemical’ does not mean every gas has the same target, lifetime or impact.

Define an Ozone Hole by Concentration and Season

An ozone hole is a seasonal region of unusually low stratospheric ozone, especially over polar areas—not a literal opening in the atmosphere.

Polar stratospheric clouds support reactions that activate chlorine; spring sunlight drives rapid catalytic loss. The reduced shield raises surface UV and can affect health and ecosystems.

Antarctic spring measurements show a seasonal low-ozone area that expands and contracts rather than remaining a permanent hole.

A measured regional concentration anomaly over time, not a photograph or one day’s UV reading.

The ozone hole is not uniform global ozone disappearance; location and season are essential.

Explain Why Montreal Could Coordinate a Phase-Out

The Montreal Protocol is an international treaty controlling the production, trade and use of CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances; it is widely regarded as the most successful international environmental cooperation to date.

A scheduled phase-out, monitoring, differentiated responsibilities, finance and technology support, trade controls and national law aligned action around a specific measurable chemical pathway.

A phased CFC reduction gives manufacturers time to replace equipment while monitoring tests whether atmospheric ODS levels fall.

Its success depends on commitments, timelines, reporting, assistance, domestic implementation and revision as substitutes create new risks.

International agreement is not magic compliance; domestic law, finance and monitoring complete the chain.

Treat Ozone Success as a Monitored Trend

Montreal Protocol action reduced ODS emissions and prevented the planetary boundary for stratospheric ozone depletion from being crossed, according to the evidence specified by the syllabus.

Evaluate the conclusion with ODS emissions and atmospheric concentrations, ozone-hole area or depth, regional and seasonal ozone measurements, baselines and uncertainty. One good year is not enough.

Declining CFC concentrations alongside long-term ozone recovery supports treaty effectiveness even when polar recovery varies with weather and atmospheric transport.

Boundary avoidance is a monitored long-term trend, not proof that recovery is complete or identical everywhere.

A successful agreement does not remove the need for compliance checks and new substitute assessment.