Practise explaining how real income, exchange rates, global demand and protectionism change imports, exports and the net trade balance.
Sources for use with Section C
The eurozone economy
Figure 1 Annual real GDP growth rate, Q1 2018 to Q3 2020
Figure 2 Inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), January 2020 to December 2020
Extract A Monetary policy
In November 2020 the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted that there were “worrying signals” about the future state of the eurozone economy. It indicated that low business confidence had caused a fall in the demand for bank loans. At the same time, there was a decrease in the availability of credit. These factors resulted in significantly lower levels of investment.
In response the ECB immediately launched an additional round of quantitative easing in December 2020. This programme was reintroduced to help the eurozone economy to recover from negative rates of economic growth, rising unemployment and to prevent another recession. It announced a €500 billion increase in the size of its quantitative easing programme for the period January 2021 to September 2021.
The ECB also announced the provision of extra low-cost funding for banks, aimed at encouraging an increase in bank lending. It agreed to finance the banks at negative interest rates of –1% until June 2022. This meant that the ECB would be paying banks to borrow more money, provided they continue to lend.
Economists have suggested that a reflationary policy could be needed for years, given the weak state of the eurozone economy. In 2020 economic growth in the eurozone was –6.7%. The ECB forecast an economic growth rate of only 3.9% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. The ECB also forecast that the rate of inflation in 2023 will increase but remain below its 2% target.
However, it is unlikely that the ECB can manage the entire burden of supporting the eurozone recovery. Market forces have already reduced the effectiveness of existing policies. For example, in 2020 the eurozone’s currency, the euro, traded at its highest level against the US dollar for more than two years. The ECB said it was “very carefully” monitoring the impact of the increase in the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar.
Economists are concerned that the ECB’s asset purchases will have a limited impact because interest rates are already extremely low. They argue that reflationary fiscal policy will be necessary to stimulate economic recovery.
Examine the likely effects of 'the increase in the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar' (Extract A, lines 25-26) on the net trade balance of the eurozone.