Practise how emerging-economy growth or slowdown changes trade flows, supply chains, commodity demand and country dependence through real data.
In 2019 the rate of economic growth was over 6% in both India and China.
Evaluate the likely impact of rapid economic growth in emerging economies on world trade patterns. Refer to countries of your choice in your answer.
Indicative content guidance
Answers must be credited by using the level descriptors (below) in line with the general marking guidance. The indicative content below exemplifies some of the points that candidates may make but this does not imply that any of these must be included. Other relevant points must also be credited.
QS9: Interpret, apply and analyse information in written, graphical, tabular and numerical forms.
Knowledge, Application, Analysis (12 marks) - indicative content
- Understanding of world trade patterns
- Understanding of emerging economies
Possible impacts could include:
- Emerging economies tend to mostly produce and export manufactured goods (secondary sector), and some also have the tendency to produce and export primary products (primary sector)
- Developed economies respond by specialising more in high-tech secondary sector, tertiary and quaternary sector goods and services
- Changes in trade balance of emerging and developed economies - emerging economies are likely to run trade surpluses, and perhaps the more developed countries run trade deficits
- Developed economies tend to move to importing more goods and exporting more services
- Increase in the overall size of trade flows due to the increase in proportion of world trade conducted by emerging economies
- Increase in investment flows to and from emerging countries
- Increase in trade deficits and surpluses for individual countries
N.B. Award maximum of Level 3 ( 9 marks) if a candidate does not refer to countries of their choice in their answer
Level
Mark
Descriptor
0
No rewardable material.
Level 1
1-3
Displays isolated, superficial or imprecise knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Use of generic material or irrelevant information or inappropriate examples. Descriptive approach which has no chains of reasoning.
Level 2
4-6
Displays elements of knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Limited application of knowledge and understanding to economic problems in context.
A narrow response or superficial, only two-stage chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence.
Level 3
7-9
Demonstrates accurate knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Ability to apply knowledge and understanding to some elements of the question. Some evidence and contextual references are evident in the answer.
Analysis is clear and coherent. Chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence are evident but they may not be developed fully or some stages are omitted.
Level 4
10-12
Demonstrates accurate and precise knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Ability to link knowledge and understanding in context using appropriate examples which are fully integrated to address the broad elements of the question.
Analysis is clear, coherent, relevant and focused. The answer demonstrates logical and multi-stage chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence.
Evaluation (8 marks) - indicative content
- Prioritisation of each of the impacts discussed
- Relative significance of each impact over time
- Short-run vs long-run distinction between likely impact - for e.g. some emerging economies, such as Brazil and Russia, have not been able to sustain the same rates of economic growth over the last decade
- It depends on protectionist measures being implemented - for e.g. USA has been in trade wars with China and this has slowed rate of economic growth of China significantly since 2017
- Developed countries are keen to reduce tariffs and remove subsidies on manufactured goods (in which they have a CA) but reluctant to open their markets to goods in which developing countries have a CA
- Different impacts more or less important for different emerging economies
Level
Mark
Descriptor
0
No rewardable material.
Level 1
1-3
Identification of generic evaluative comments.
No supporting evidence/reference to context.
No evidence of a logical chain of reasoning.
Level 2
4-6
Evidence of evaluation of alternative approaches.
Some supporting evidence/reference to context.
Evaluation is supported by a partially-developed chain of reasoning.
Level 3
7-8
Evaluation recognises different viewpoints and/or is critical of the evidence, leading to an informed judgement.
Appropriate reference to evidence/context.
Evaluation is supported by a logical chain of reasoning.
Question
The share of GDP accounted for by the service sector is much higher in the UK and the USA than in Italy and Canada.
Evaluate the possible benefits of specialisation and trade to a developed country of your choice.
Indicative content