Question 1
In 2021, 2.4 million migrants moved into the European Union (EU) from non-EU countries. In 2022, this number rose to 5.1 million.
Evaluate the likely benefits of a significant increase in migration into the EU.
Indicative content guidance
Answers must be credited by using the level descriptors (below) in line with the general marking guidance. The indicative content below exemplifies some of the points that candidates may make but this does not imply that any of these must be included. Other relevant points must also be credited.
QS9: Interpret, apply and analyse information in written, graphical, tabular and numerical forms.
Knowledge, Application and Analysis ( 12 marks) - indicative content
- Understanding of migration
Benefits may include:
- Reduction in skills shortages in labour markets, increasing productivity;
may help decrease production bottlenecks
- Effects on labour market: rise in competition, reduction of wage and unit labour costs, making exports more internationally competitive
- Reduction in voluntary unemployment/increase in filling of job vacancies;
make the labour market more flexible as migrants are willing to take up jobs that are hard to fill, including seasonal and low-skilled work
- Increase in economic growth as a result of an increase in LRAS: lower price level and higher real output
- Rise in tax receipts for governments of countries in the EU resulting in an improvement in public finances
- May bring new ideas and entrepreneurship, contributing to innovation and the creation of new businesses
- Helps to counteract the ageing population in many EU countries by increasing the birth rate and supporting the dependency ratio
- Migrants often work in essential sectors such as healthcare, education, and social services, helping to meet the demand for these services and supporting the overall functioning of society
N.B. Award maximum of Level 3 ( 9 marks) if a candidate does not refer to the EU in their answer
Level
Mark
Descriptor
0
No rewardable material.
Level 1
1-3
Displays isolated, superficial or imprecise knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Use of generic material or irrelevant information or inappropriate examples.
Descriptive approach which has no chains of reasoning.
Level 2
4-6
Displays elements of knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Limited application of knowledge and understanding to economic problems in context.
A narrow response or superficial, only two-stage chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence.
Level 3
7-9
Demonstrates accurate knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models.
Ability to apply knowledge and understanding to some elements of the question. Some evidence and contextual references are evident in the answer.
Analysis is clear and coherent. Chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence are evident but they may not be developed fully or some stages are omitted.
Level 4
10-12
Demonstrates accurate and precise knowledge and understanding of economic terms, principles, concepts, theories and models. Ability to link knowledge and understanding in context using appropriate examples which are fully integrated to address the broad elements of the question.
Analysis is clear, coherent, relevant and focused. The answer demonstrates logical and multi-stage chains of reasoning in terms of cause and/or consequence.
Evaluation (8 marks) - indicative content
- Depends on the magnitude of the increase in migration: as 2.7 million/ 112.5% increase within one year is large, the impact on the EU is likely to be significant
- Depends on whether migrants find jobs or remain economically inactive or unemployed
- Depends on the skills of migrants, e.g. there may be a skills mismatch
- Depends on whether migration into the EU is permanent or temporary
- Impact on wages depends on whether migrants are skilled or non-skilled or non-working
- Net migration / emigration figures are important
Costs may include:
- Pressure on public services: housing, health, education, social security/ benefit systems - impacts public finances in the long run
- Rise in unemployment of domestic workers as they can be displaced by migrants who may be willing to work for low wages
- Impact on origin countries e.g. brain drain, loss of workforce, loss of tax revenue to the governments of non-EU countries
- Negative externalities/external costs e.g. crime or environmental issues
- Increase in the supply of labour can put downward pressure on wages, particularly in low-skilled jobs;
this can affect the income levels of workers in the EU and lead to income inequality
- Governments may need to reallocate resources to address the needs of migrants, which can divert funds from other important areas
Level
Mark
Descriptor
0
No rewardable material.
Level 1
1-3
Identification of generic evaluative comments.
No supporting evidence/reference to context.
No evidence of a logical chain of reasoning.
Level 2
4-6
Evidence of evaluation of alternative approaches.
Some supporting evidence/reference to context.
Evaluation is supported by a partially-developed chain of reasoning.
Level 3
7-8
Evaluation recognises different viewpoints and/or is critical of the evidence, leading to an informed judgement.
Appropriate reference to evidence/context.
Evaluation is supported by a logical chain of reasoning.