1.12—Cardiovascular disease risk factors

A risk factor is a characteristic associated with a higher probability of cardiovascular disease. Genetics, age, smoking, inactivity, diet and high blood pressure can alter risk, but none alone proves that an individual will develop disease.

Risk-factor data compare groups or exposures, often using relative risk or correlation. Confounding variables, sample selection and reverse causation can make a simple association misleading.

If smokers show a higher CVD rate than non-smokers, the result supports an association. To argue for causation, ask whether dose, timing, plausible mechanism and alternative explanations have been addressed.

Separate modifiable factors such as smoking and inactivity from non-modifiable factors such as age or inherited susceptibility. A prevention decision should weigh effect size, evidence quality and feasibility.

‘Causes’ is stronger than ‘is associated with’. A population trend does not predict an individual outcome, and reducing one risk factor does not remove every other source of risk.