4.3 Sales forecasting

A sales forecast estimates future sales volume or revenue from stated assumptions about demand, price, seasonality, competition and capacity. It supports production, staffing, cash and marketing decisions.

Forecasts combine evidence with judgement: historical data may miss a new competitor or changing taste, while qualitative insight may be biased. Scenario ranges reveal how sensitive plans are to the main drivers.

State the forecast measure and period, identify the driver assumptions, then test a base case against a plausible high or low case.

A café forecasts 1,000 weekday meals at $8, but a new competitor could reduce volume by 15%; staffing and stock should be planned against both cases.

A forecast is not a target or certainty; do not treat one number as proof that demand will occur.