8.1 Human populations

• Births and immigration • Crude birth rate, immigration rate

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• Deaths and emigration are outputs from a human population • Crude death rate (number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population per year) and emigration rate (number of emigrants per 1 • The rates can be used at a variety of scales—from small urban areas, like a town, to a country to a region or to the global population

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• Population dynamics can be quantified and analysed by calculating total fertility rate, life expectancy, doubling time and natural increase • Total fertility rate is the average number of births per woman of childbearing age • Life expectancy is the average number of years that a person can be expected to live, usually from birth, if demographic factors remain unchanged • Doubling time is the number of years it would take a population to double its size at its current growth rate; it can be calculated by using the rule of 70

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• The global human population has followed a rapid growth curve • Models are used to predict the growth of the future global human population • UN projection models indicate three scenarios linked to future fertility rates • There is uncertainty about how future human fertility rates may change, leading to the three scenarios in the models

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• Population and migration policies can be employed to directly manage growth rates of human populations • These may be anti-natalist or pro-natalist, thereby directly addressing birth rates, or they may address immigration and emigration • These policies may use a variety of cultural, religious, economic, social and political factors to achieve their aims • Include: named examples

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• Human population growth can also be managed indirectly through economic, social, health, development and other policies that have an impact on births, deaths or migration • Many development policies addressing areas such as, but not limited to, gender equality, education, improvements in public health and welfare will indirectly affect births • Include: two named examples

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• The composition of human populations can be modelled and compared using age–sex pyramids • The pyramid is measured in absolute numbers or as a percentage of the total population • It shows the proportion of the population of either gender in each age group

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• DTM describes changing birth and death rates through stages of development • Used to analyse population change over time

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• Increased stress on Earth's systems • Related to biocapacity disparity and planetary boundaries

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• Determine dependency ratio and population momentum • Dependency ratio: dependent ages vs. productive ages (15-64) • Population momentum: growth continues despite fertility decline

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• Compare countries in different DTM stages • Historical, cultural, religious, economic, social, political factors

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• Climate change, drought, land degradation • Sudden onset: flooding, fires, storms • Slow onset: desertification, sea-level rise, saltwater inundation

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