Unit 1: Markets in Action

Syllabus
2018
Section
—
Level
AS

1.3.1 - Introductory concepts

Syllabus
2018
Topic
1.3.1
Level
AS

Why economics is a social science

Economics is a social science because it studies how people, firms and governments make choices and interact. Their behaviour can respond to expectations, institutions and changing circumstances, so it is harder to isolate causes than in a controlled laboratory experiment.

An economist usually cannot hold an entire economy constant, randomly assign countries to policies, or repeat a recession under identical conditions. Such experiments may be impractical or unethical, and many relevant variables change at the same time. Much economic evidence is therefore observational or comes from limited natural and field experiments.

Economists still form hypotheses, compare predictions with data and revise explanations. However, a relationship observed in data may be correlation rather than causation, and a conclusion may be conditional or probabilistic rather than a universal law.

The inability to run fully controlled economy-wide experiments does not make economics unscientific or evidence-free. It means claims require careful assumptions, comparison groups and acknowledgement of uncertainty.

Use assumptions to build economic models

An economic model is a simplified representation of part of the economy. It selects the variables and relationships needed to answer a question, while assumptions temporarily set aside details that would obscure the mechanism.

Stage Purpose
choose assumptions define the conditions under which the model applies
derive a relationship explain how one variable is expected to affect another
produce a prediction state what should be observed if the model is useful
compare with evidence assess, revise or reject the model

A simple market model may assume many buyers and sellers and treat product quality as unchanged. It can then focus on how a change in price affects planned purchases. The model is useful if it clarifies the relationship, even though real markets contain more detail.

An assumption is not automatically a claim that reality always has that feature. Model conclusions are conditional: if an assumption is inappropriate for the context, the prediction may not hold.

Reason ceteris paribus

Ceteris paribus means 'other relevant things being equal'. It allows a model to isolate the predicted effect of one changed variable while holding other influences conceptually constant.

Suppose a model predicts that a higher price reduces quantity demanded. The conclusion is ceteris paribus: income, tastes, the prices of related goods and other demand conditions are assumed unchanged. If income rises at the same time, the observed quantity could rise despite the price increase, so the price effect cannot be identified from the total change alone.

State the changed variable, the outcome and the important factors being held constant. This makes the causal reasoning transparent and shows when new evidence would require the conclusion to be qualified.

Ceteris paribus does not mean other factors literally never change. It is an analytical assumption for isolating one relationship, not a description of a permanently frozen economy.

Distinguish positive and normative statements

Statement type Test Example
Positive objective claim that can in principle be checked against evidence and found true or false 'A tax increased the price paid by consumers.'
Normative subjective value judgement about what is desirable, fair or right; evidence alone cannot prove it 'The government should impose the tax.'

Words such as 'should', 'fair' and 'better' often signal a normative judgement, but classification depends on meaning. A statement predicting what a policy will do is positive even if uncertain; a statement choosing the outcome society ought to prefer is normative.

Separate the two in an argument: first test the positive claim with relevant data, then identify the value judgement used to recommend or reject the policy.

A normative statement can be well reasoned and supported by evidence, but its underlying value judgement cannot be settled by evidence alone. A positive statement is testable, not necessarily correct.

How value judgements shape policy

A value judgement is a view about which outcomes deserve priority. Economic policy requires such judgements because decision makers must weigh objectives such as efficiency, equality, freedom, environmental protection and security.

Positive analysis may estimate who gains, who loses, how large an effect may be and what opportunity cost arises. The policy choice then depends partly on the weight placed on those consequences. Two decision makers can accept the same evidence yet prefer different policies because they value the outcomes differently.

Evidence might predict that a pollution tax reduces emissions but raises household energy costs. Supporting the tax may reflect a judgement that environmental benefits outweigh the cost; opposing it may place greater weight on affordability or distributional effects.

Do not present a policy recommendation as value-free. Make the factual prediction and the normative priority explicit, and recognise that affected stakeholders may hold different legitimate priorities.

The basic economic problem

The basic economic problem is scarcity: human wants are unlimited relative to the finite resources available at a particular time. Labour, land, capital and enterprise cannot produce every desired good and service simultaneously.

Scarcity forces households, firms and governments to choose what to produce, how to produce it and who receives it. Using a resource for one purpose prevents its simultaneous use elsewhere, creating an opportunity cost.

A government with a fixed budget may want more hospitals, schools and transport. Funding all desired projects is impossible, so allocating more to one area means giving up the best alternative use of those funds.

Scarcity does not mean a resource is absolutely absent or that everyone is poor. It means availability is limited relative to wants, even in a wealthy economy.

Renewable and non-renewable resources

Resource type Defining feature Examples
Renewable replenished naturally so it can be used repeatedly when use does not exceed regeneration sunlight, wind, flowing water, sustainably managed forests
Non-renewable finite stock that is depleted by extraction or use and is not replenished on a human timescale coal, oil, natural gas, metal ores

The distinction affects long-run availability and production choices. Depleting a non-renewable stock leaves less for future use; investment in renewable capacity can reduce dependence on that stock.

Renewable does not mean unlimited or harmless. A renewable resource can be degraded when it is used faster than it regenerates, while both types can create environmental costs depending on how they are developed and used.

From scarcity to opportunity cost

Opportunity cost is the value of the next best alternative forgone when a choice is made. It exists because scarce resources cannot be used for every alternative at once.

Identify the choice, list the feasible alternatives, and find the most valuable alternative not selected. That next best option—not every option forgone—is the opportunity cost.

If a council uses a plot of land for a library rather than its best alternative, a health centre, the opportunity cost is the value of the health centre's benefits. The construction bill is a financial cost; it is not by itself the opportunity cost.

Opportunity cost can involve time, output, income or wellbeing and may not have a market price. If a resource is genuinely abundant and has no alternative valued use, its opportunity cost can be zero.

Free goods and economic goods

Type Scarcity and opportunity cost Price implication
Free good abundant relative to demand, so using it has zero opportunity cost no price is required to ration the natural supply
Economic good scarce relative to demand and has an alternative use, so consumption or production has an opportunity cost people may be willing to pay and a price can ration access

Classification depends on circumstances. Water may act as a free good where it is naturally abundant and accessible, but become an economic good during drought or where treatment and distribution use scarce resources.

A zero monetary price does not automatically make something a free good: a publicly provided service can still use scarce labour and capital. 'Free' here means zero opportunity cost, not merely free at the point of use.

Read a production possibility frontier

A production possibility frontier (PPF) shows the maximum combinations of two outputs an economy can produce with its current resources, technology and efficiency.

Position Meaning
on the frontier productively efficient: all available resources are fully and efficiently used
inside the frontier obtainable but productively inefficient: some resources are unemployed or misallocated
outside the frontier currently unobtainable with existing productive potential

A movement along the frontier reallocates resources. The marginal opportunity cost of one more unit of good XX is the amount of good YY given up between the two production points.

\text{marginal opportunity cost of }X=\frac{\text{fall in output of }Y}{\text{rise in output of }X}

An outward frontier represents economic growth or greater productive potential; an inward frontier represents economic decline. Label both output axes and state the resources/technology conditions when interpreting any point.

Moving from inside the PPF to the frontier is improved efficiency, not necessarily an increase in productive potential. A point outside is unobtainable now, not impossible forever.

Movement along or shift of a PPF

Change What happens Typical cause
movement along one PPF the output mix changes; more of one good means less of the other resources are reallocated between the two goods
outward shift maximum possible output increases more or better resources, capital investment, skills, technology or discovery of resources
inward shift maximum possible output decreases loss of labour or capital, natural disaster, conflict or resource depletion

A larger or more productive labour force, better capital or improved technology raises potential output and shifts the frontier outward. The effect may be biased: innovation specific to one industry can rotate or shift one end farther than the other.

The cause matters. Education and capital investment often work after a time lag and may fail to raise capacity if skills or equipment are poorly matched. Population growth raises potential output only if additional workers can participate productively.

A movement from an inefficient point inside the PPF to a point on it is not a shift. A shift changes the boundary itself because productive potential has changed.

Capital goods and consumer goods

Goods Main use Examples
Capital goods man-made aids used to produce other goods and services machinery, commercial vehicles, tools, factory buildings
Consumer goods used directly by households to satisfy current wants food, clothing, household entertainment

Classification depends on use rather than physical appearance. A computer used in a design business is a capital good; the same model used by a household for entertainment is a consumer good.

Producing more capital goods can reduce current consumer-goods output because resources are scarce, but may expand future production. Producing consumer goods raises current satisfaction without directly adding productive capacity.

Capital goods are produced assets, not financial capital such as shares or money. A durable consumer good does not become a capital good merely because it lasts a long time.

Why capital goods can create growth

Capital goods raise productivity when they allow workers to produce more output per unit of time or enable production that was previously impossible. This can increase an economy's productive potential and shift its PPF outward.

Investment in effective machinery, infrastructure or technology increases the quantity or quality of capital per worker. Output per worker can rise, unit costs may fall, firms can expand, and the economy can produce more capital and consumer goods in future.

Resources used for investment cannot produce current consumer goods at the same time, so faster future growth may require a short-run opportunity cost. The gain also depends on complementary skills, maintenance, demand and whether the capital is well chosen.

Purchasing capital goods does not guarantee growth. Depreciation, idle equipment, poor allocation or a long implementation lag can reduce or delay the productivity effect.

Specialisation and division of labour

Specialisation concentrates production on a narrower range of outputs or tasks. Division of labour applies this within production by breaking the process into tasks and assigning workers to specialise in particular stages.

Potential advantages Potential disadvantages
greater dexterity and expertise; less time changing tasks or tools repetitive work can reduce motivation and quality
higher output per worker and lower unit costs narrow skills can reduce occupational mobility
shorter training for a limited task; easier use of specialised machinery absence, industrial action or a bottleneck can disrupt interdependent stages
tasks can match workers' strengths automation may displace specialised workers

Adam Smith used pin production to show how task specialisation, saved switching time and purpose-designed machinery could raise output dramatically. For a firm, the gain is strongest when demand is large enough to support repeated specialised tasks.

Higher output is not automatic. The net effect depends on production technology, worker motivation, coordination and whether lost flexibility outweighs the productivity gain.

How money supports specialisation

Function of money Economic role
medium of exchange accepted payment that avoids the need for a double coincidence of wants
measure of value (unit of account) common unit for comparing prices, costs and incomes
store of value transfers purchasing power from the present to the future
method of deferred payment allows debts and future payments to be stated and settled

A specialised producer can sell output for money and use the proceeds to buy many other goods, rather than barter directly with someone who wants that exact output. Reliable prices, saving and credit therefore make exchange across specialised households and firms easier.

Money performs these functions well only when it is widely accepted and retains sufficient value. Money is not the same as income or wealth: it is an asset and payment mechanism used to measure and exchange value.

The roles of financial markets

Financial markets connect savers, borrowers, investors and traders, allowing funds and financial claims to move to different uses across time and risk.

Required role How it helps economic activity
facilitate saving households and firms can hold funds for future use; intermediaries can channel savings onward
make funds available loans and other finance support household purchases and business working capital or investment
facilitate exchange payment systems transfer funds for goods and services
provide forward markets buyers and sellers agree today on a price for future delivery of commodities or currencies, reducing price uncertainty
provide a market for equities firms can raise finance by issuing shares and investors can buy or sell ownership claims

By moving funds from savers to productive borrowers, markets can support capital formation and exchange. Their usefulness depends on information, trust, liquidity and prudent risk management.

A forward contract reduces uncertainty about a future price but can leave a party worse off than the later market price. Lending and equity finance also carry repayment, price and income risks; a financial market does not guarantee a beneficial outcome.

Free market, command and mixed economies

Economy Main allocator of resources Ownership and decisions
Free market price mechanism through demand, supply and profit signals predominantly private ownership and decentralised consumer/firm choices; little state direction
Command government planning and administrative decisions extensive state ownership or control; planners set output and allocation priorities
Mixed both price mechanism and government intervention private activity coexists with taxes, spending, regulation and public provision

Real economies lie on a spectrum. The size of government spending alone does not fully classify a system; ownership, regulation and how key resource decisions are made also matter.

A mixed economy is not an equal 50:50 split. It simply combines market allocation with a significant role for the state, and the balance can change over time.

Compare free market and command economies

Issue Free market economy Command economy
incentives and innovation profit and income incentives may raise effort, efficiency and innovation planners can direct resources to strategic priorities, but weak profit signals may reduce efficiency and innovation
information and choice prices respond to dispersed consumer preferences and scarcity; choice can be wide planning can coordinate large projects, but gathering detailed changing information is difficult and shortages or surpluses may result
distribution and provision outcomes may be unequal; public, merit or externality-related goods may be underprovided state can target access, employment and basic provision, but political priorities may override preferences
power and failure competition may lower costs, but monopoly, instability and market failure can occur central control can restrain private monopoly, but bureaucracy, weak accountability and government failure can waste resources

Neither label determines every outcome. Performance depends on competition, institutions, information, incentives, administrative capacity and which goods are being allocated. Most economies combine the systems to capture some benefits and limit some failures.

Do not evaluate a system from one policy or statistic. Compare mechanisms and trade-offs, and distinguish a pure theoretical model from the mixed arrangements observed in practice.

The state's role in a mixed economy

In a mixed economy the state influences resource allocation alongside markets. It sets the legal framework, raises revenue, spends, produces or funds services, and changes incentives through policy.

State role Possible instrument
provide goods and services markets may underprovide direct provision, procurement or subsidy
correct harmful or beneficial spillovers taxes, subsidies and regulation
protect consumers and competition standards, information rules and competition policy
redistribute income or protect minimum living standards progressive taxes, cash benefits and public services
support selected incomes or strategic supplies minimum prices, grants or public purchasing

Intervention can improve access, equity or efficiency, but it uses scarce public funds and may create administrative costs, weak incentives or unintended effects. The case for a policy depends on the market problem, its design and the quality of government information.

The state's presence does not replace the price mechanism in a mixed economy. Markets continue to allocate many resources while government modifies, supplements or sometimes overrides particular outcomes.

1.3.2 - Consumer behaviour and demand

Syllabus
2018
Topic
1.3.2
Level
AS

Rational economic decisions

The rationality assumption treats decision makers as comparing relevant benefits and costs and choosing the available option that best meets their objective. Consumers are assumed to maximise utility—the satisfaction gained from consumption—while firms are assumed to maximise profit.

Decision maker Objective in the model Rational comparison
consumer maximise utility within income and other constraints expected satisfaction and all relevant costs of feasible choices
firm maximise profit expected revenue and economic costs of feasible actions

A consumer who switches to an equally suitable, lower-priced energy tariff may gain more utility from the income saved. A firm accepts an extra order only if the expected addition to revenue exceeds the relevant addition to cost.

Rationality is a modelling assumption, not a claim that people possess perfect information, calculate without cost, or care only about money. A choice that looks costly may still be rational if it provides quality, convenience or another valued benefit.

Why consumers may not maximise utility

Influence How it can change a choice
herding following other people's choices instead of independently comparing options
habitual behaviour repeating a familiar purchase or remaining loyal without reconsidering it
inertia avoiding the time or effort needed to change an existing choice
poor computational skills miscalculating prices, probabilities, savings or complex tariffs
need to feel valued preferring recognition, loyalty treatment or service relationships
framing and bias responding differently because equivalent information is presented or mentally weighted differently

A household may keep an expensive broadband contract through habit or inertia; follow the provider used by friends through herding; misunderstand a tariff through poor computation; or prefer familiar service because it feels valued. A comparison site's framing can also direct attention to a headline discount while obscuring later charges.

Observed non-switching does not prove irrationality. Search time, contract penalties, reliability and service quality can make staying the utility-maximising choice. Diagnose the mechanism and compare all relevant benefits and costs before judging.

The six reasons are distinct but can interact. Habit is repeated behaviour; inertia concerns the effort of changing; herding follows others. None automatically proves that utility was not maximised.

What demand means

Demand is the quantity of a good or service that consumers are willing and able to buy at each possible price during a stated period, ceteris paribus.

A demand schedule records price–quantity pairs; a demand curve plots those pairs with price on the vertical axis and quantity demanded on the horizontal axis. Market demand is found by adding the quantities demanded by all consumers at each price.

Both willingness and ability matter. Wanting a product without the purchasing power to buy it is not effective demand. Always attach demand to a period, because a quantity per week is not the same as a quantity per year.

Demand is the entire relationship between price and quantity demanded. A single quantity demanded is one amount at one price; it is not the whole demand curve.

Movement along or shift of demand

Event Diagram change Language
the good's own price changes, other demand conditions fixed move to another point on the same demand curve extension when price falls; contraction when price rises
a non-price determinant changes the whole curve shifts right or left increase or decrease in demand at every given price

A fall in the price of rice causes an extension in quantity demanded along the rice demand curve. A rise in population can shift rice demand right because more may be demanded at every price.

Ask first: did the good's own price change? If yes, show a movement along the existing curve. If another determinant changed, hold own price constant and show a shift.

Do not call a price-driven movement an increase or decrease in demand. It is an increase or decrease in quantity demanded; demand itself shifts only when a non-price determinant changes.

Diminishing marginal utility and demand

Total utility is the satisfaction from all units consumed. Marginal utility is the additional utility from one more unit. Diminishing marginal utility means that, after some point, each successive unit adds less utility than the previous unit, ceteris paribus.

MU_n=TU_n-TU_{n-1}

If each extra unit gives less additional satisfaction, a consumer will normally buy further units only at a lower price. This helps explain why an individual's demand curve slopes downward: lower prices make units with lower marginal utility worth purchasing.

If total utility from one, two and three portions is 10, 18 and 23, marginal utility is 10, 8 and 5. Total utility still rises, but at a decreasing rate.

Diminishing marginal utility does not mean total utility must immediately fall. Total utility rises while marginal utility is positive, is maximised when the next unit adds zero, and falls only if marginal utility becomes negative.

What shifts a demand curve

Determinant changes Likely demand effect, other things equal
price of a substitute rises demand for this good shifts right
price of a complement rises demand for this good shifts left
real income rises right for a normal good; left for an inferior good
tastes become more favourable right
relevant population grows right
age distribution changes direction depends on which age group demands the good
effective advertising right if it increases awareness or preference

Name the determinant, explain how it changes willingness or ability to buy, then state the direction of the shift. For example, a petrol-price rise can increase demand for electric vehicles if the two are substitutes.

Direction depends on the relationship and context. Higher income need not raise demand for an inferior good; advertising may fail; and population ageing can raise demand for one product while reducing another.

A shift means quantity demanded changes at every given own price. A change in the good's own price remains a movement along the curve, not a shift.

Three elasticities of demand

Measure Responsiveness measured Numerator / denominator
price elasticity of demand (PED) quantity demanded to the good's own price % change in quantity demanded / % change in own price
income elasticity of demand (YED) quantity demanded to consumer real income % change in quantity demanded / % change in real income
cross elasticity of demand (XED) demand for good X to the price of good Y % change in quantity demanded of X / % change in price of Y

Elasticity is a ratio, so it has no unit. Its magnitude shows responsiveness; its sign can reveal direction and, for YED and XED, the relationship between goods or between income and demand.

Do not swap the numerator and denominator, and do not use XED for a good's response to its own price. State which good is X and which is Y before interpreting cross elasticity.

Calculate PED, YED and XED

%\Delta Z=\frac{Z_{new}-Z_{original}}{Z_{original}}\times100

PED=\frac{%\Delta Q_d}{%\Delta P},\qquad YED=\frac{%\Delta Q_d}{%\Delta Y},\qquad XED_{X,Y}=\frac{%\Delta Q_{d,X}}{%\Delta P_Y}

  1. Identify the correct original values. 2. Calculate each percentage change using its own original value. 3. Divide the percentage change in quantity demanded by the relevant price or income percentage change. 4. Keep the sign, round only at the end, and interpret the result.

If price rises from 20to20 to22 and quantity demanded falls from 500 to 450, price changes by +10% and quantity demanded by −10%. PED = −10% ÷ 10% = −1.

If an elasticity and the causal percentage change are known, rearrange: percentage change in quantity demanded = elasticity × percentage change in price or income.

An elasticity is not a percentage. PED = −0.5 does not mean demand falls by 0.5% for every price change; a 1% price rise predicts a 0.5% quantity fall, ceteris paribus.

Interpret price elasticity of demand

PED value Interpretation Curve benchmark
−∞-\infty perfectly price elastic: any price rise reduces quantity demanded to zero horizontal
less than −1-1 price elastic: quantity responds more than proportionately relatively responsive
−1-1 unitary price elastic: equal proportionate response unit elasticity
between −1-1 and 00 price inelastic: quantity responds less than proportionately relatively unresponsive
00 perfectly price inelastic: quantity does not respond to price vertical

PED is usually negative because price and quantity demanded move in opposite directions. Compare absolute values when ranking responsiveness: PED −2 is more elastic than PED −0.4.

A steeper-looking curve is not always less elastic because axis scales and the point on the curve matter. Interpret the numerical elasticity, not visual slope alone.

What influences PED

Factor Tends to make demand more price elastic when...
substitutes close alternatives are numerous and easy to switch to
branding brand loyalty is weak; strong loyalty tends to reduce responsiveness
share of expenditure the purchase takes a large share of the consumer's budget
addictiveness dependence is weak; strong addiction tends to reduce responsiveness
durability purchase can be postponed or an existing durable can keep being used

Each factor changes the consumer's ability or willingness to adjust quantity after a price change. Natural gas may be price inelastic where it is necessary and alternatives are scarce; a specific cinema time may be more elastic when another showing is an easy substitute.

PED can differ across consumers, price ranges and time. More substitutes may emerge and consumers can adjust habits in the longer run, often making demand more elastic.

Do not infer PED from whether a product is expensive in absolute terms. The relevant ideas are substitution, budget share and adjustment possibilities, not the price label alone.

Calculate total revenue

TR=P\times Q

Total revenue is the money a firm receives from sales over a stated period. Multiply the selling price per unit by the number of units sold in the same period and currency.

At 3perunitand45,000units,totalrevenueis3 per unit and 45,000 units, total revenue is135,000. At 4and45,000units,itis4 and 45,000 units, it is180,000, so revenue rises by $45,000.

When price changes, calculate revenue before and after using the corresponding quantity at each price. Comparing prices alone cannot reveal the revenue change.

Total revenue is not profit. Profit subtracts costs from revenue, so a revenue increase can coexist with lower profit if costs rise by more.

PED along a straight-line demand curve

Position on a straight-line demand curve PED magnitude
upper section: high price, low quantity elastic, ∣PED∣>1|PED|>1
midpoint unitary, ∣PED∣=1|PED|=1
lower section: low price, high quantity inelastic, ∣PED∣<1|PED|<1
price-axis intercept / quantity-axis intercept approaches infinity / approaches zero

The straight line has a constant slope, but elasticity is a percentage concept. Moving down the curve changes the price-to-quantity ratio: the same absolute movement is a larger percentage of a small starting quantity near the top and a smaller percentage near the bottom.

The midpoint also separates the revenue effects: above it, a price fall raises total revenue; below it, a price fall reduces total revenue.

Constant slope does not mean constant elasticity. Do not identify the regions from unseen lettered points; locate them relative to the midpoint and intercepts.

PED and total revenue

Demand at the current point Price rises Price falls
elastic, ∣PED∣>1|PED|>1 TR falls TR rises
unitary, ∣PED∣=1|PED|=1 TR unchanged TR unchanged
inelastic, ∣PED∣<1|PED|<1 TR rises TR falls

Total revenue is price × quantity. With elastic demand, quantity changes by a larger percentage than price, so the quantity effect dominates. With inelastic demand, the price percentage change is larger, so the price effect dominates.

A firm considering a price change can use PED to predict the direction of revenue change, provided the estimate is relevant to the price range, consumers and time period.

The rule predicts total revenue, not profit, and it is ceteris paribus. Costs, competitor responses, quality changes or a demand shift can change the business outcome.

Interpret income elasticity of demand

YED value Interpretation
positive normal good: demand moves in the same direction as income
greater than +1+1 income elastic normal good
between 00 and +1+1 income inelastic normal good
negative inferior good: demand falls as income rises
00 perfectly income inelastic: demand does not respond to income
magnitude tending to infinity perfectly income elastic benchmark

YED +2.0 predicts that a 3% income rise raises quantity demanded by 6%; YED −0.2 predicts that a 10% income rise reduces quantity demanded by 2%, ceteris paribus.

The sign distinguishes normal from inferior goods; the absolute magnitude distinguishes a more-than-proportionate from less-than-proportionate response. Classification can change across income ranges and consumers.

Income inelastic does not mean inferior. A good with YED +0.4 is normal but income inelastic; inferiority requires a negative sign.

Interpret cross elasticity of demand

XED value Relationship
positive substitutes: a rise in the price of Y raises demand for X
negative complements: a rise in the price of Y lowers demand for X
zero or very close to zero unrelated or only a very weak relationship
larger absolute value stronger responsiveness and generally a closer relationship

If XED for Pepsi with respect to the price of Coca-Cola is +1.24, a 10% rise in Coca-Cola's price predicts a 12.4% rise in demand for Pepsi. If coffee's XED with respect to milk is −0.04, the negative sign indicates complementarity but the response is weak.

Name both goods and the direction: XEDX,YXED_{X,Y} measures demand for X after Y's price changes. Reversing the goods describes a different estimate.

A positive XED does not show that either good is normal; that requires YED. A small non-zero estimate may reflect a weak link and measurement uncertainty, so avoid claiming a strong relationship.

Why demand elasticities matter

User PED YED XED
firms anticipate sales/revenue response to price changes forecast demand as incomes grow or contract identify competitive and complementary products
consumers anticipate how price changes and alternatives affect spending choices plan changing expenditure as income changes compare switching possibilities between related goods
government forecast effects of taxes, subsidies and price policies on quantity and revenue anticipate cyclical demand and service needs assess product relationships when designing policy or competition decisions

Choose the elasticity that matches the causal question, use an estimate for the relevant market and time, calculate the predicted quantity response, then consider costs, distribution and uncertainty before deciding.

Elasticity estimates are not fixed laws. They can change with consumer groups, time, available substitutes, income range, branding and the size of the change. A forecast is conditional on other demand determinants remaining unchanged.

Elasticity alone does not determine a firm's profit, a consumer's welfare or whether a government policy is desirable. It supplies one responsiveness estimate within a wider decision.

1.3.3 - Supply

Syllabus
2018
Topic
1.3.3
Level
AS

What supply means

Supply is the quantity of a good or service that producers are willing and able to offer for sale at each possible price during a stated period, ceteris paribus.

A supply schedule records price–quantity pairs; a supply curve plots them with price on the vertical axis and quantity supplied on the horizontal axis. Market supply adds the quantities offered by all producers at each price.

A higher price can make extra production worthwhile because it may cover the rising marginal cost of expanding output, so a conventional supply curve slopes upward.

Supply is the entire relationship between price and quantity supplied. Stock is an amount held at a moment; some stock may be withheld rather than offered for sale, so stock and supply are not identical.

Movement along or shift of supply

Event Diagram change Language
the good's own price changes, other supply conditions fixed move to another point on the same supply curve extension when price rises; contraction when price falls
a non-price determinant changes the whole curve shifts right or left increase or decrease in supply at every given price

A rise in the market price of wheat causes an extension in quantity supplied along the existing wheat supply curve. A fall in fertiliser costs can shift wheat supply right because farmers can profitably offer more at each price.

Ask whether the good's own price changed. If it did, show a movement along the same curve. If costs, technology, policy or another supply condition changed, hold own price constant and show a shift.

An extension of supply is not an increase in supply. The former is an own-price movement; the latter is a rightward shift of the whole relationship.

What shifts a supply curve

Change Usual shift, other things equal Mechanism
production costs rise / fall left / right fewer / more units are profitable at each price
productive technology improves right productivity rises or unit cost falls
specific indirect tax left a fixed tax per unit raises marginal cost by the same amount per unit
ad valorem indirect tax left a percentage tax creates a larger tax amount at higher prices
government subsidy right payment lowers producers' effective cost
natural disaster left capital, crops, transport or other productive capacity is damaged

Name the determinant, trace its effect on cost or productive capacity, and state why producers offer more or less at every given market price. The shift's size depends on the magnitude and importance of the change.

A cost rise may be partly absorbed or offset by another cost fall. Technology needs adoption, and a disaster may affect only a region or industry, so direction can be clear while magnitude and duration remain uncertain.

Do not shift supply because the good's own market price changes. Own price causes movement along supply; a tax or subsidy shifts supply because it changes producers' cost at a given price.

The concept of price elasticity of supply

Price elasticity of supply (PES) measures the responsiveness of quantity supplied to a change in the good's own price, ceteris paribus.

PES=\frac{%\text{ change in quantity supplied}}{%\text{ change in price}}

PES is a unit-free ratio. Supply normally responds in the same direction as price, so PES is usually positive. A larger value means producers can adjust quantity supplied more strongly over the stated time period.

PES measures a movement along a supply curve after an own-price change; it does not measure a shift caused by costs, taxes or technology. Always state the time period because responsiveness can change over time.

Calculate and interpret PES

%\Delta Z=\frac{Z_{new}-Z_{original}}{Z_{original}}\times100,\qquad PES=\frac{%\Delta Q_s}{%\Delta P}

Calculate both percentage changes from their original values, divide the percentage change in quantity supplied by the percentage change in price, retain the sign, and round only at the end. If PES and a price change are known, use %ΔQs=PESimes%ΔP\%\Delta Q_s=PES imes\%\Delta P.

PES Interpretation Benchmark curve
tends to infinity perfectly elastic supply horizontal
greater than 1 elastic: quantity changes more than proportionately relatively responsive
1 unitary elastic equal proportionate change
between 0 and 1 inelastic: quantity changes less than proportionately relatively unresponsive
0 perfectly inelastic supply vertical

If price rises by 10% and quantity supplied rises by 4%, PES = 4% ÷ 10% = 0.4, so supply is price inelastic.

PES is not a percentage and should not normally be negative. A negative result often signals reversed dates, a simultaneous supply shift, or data that do not satisfy ceteris paribus.

What influences PES

Factor Supply is more elastic when...
time period producers have longer to alter inputs, plant or capacity
stocks / perishability saleable stocks exist and can be released; goods are not rapidly perishable
mobility of factors labour, capital and land can move into production readily
legal constraints licences, planning rules and quotas are limited or quick to satisfy
capacity spare capacity exists rather than factories operating at full capacity

Hotels and houses can be inelastic when construction and permissions take years. Agricultural supply can be inelastic when crops need long maturation or suitable climates, but stored stocks can increase the immediate response. Full-capacity semiconductor plants cannot expand quickly after a price rise.

Factors interact. Spare capacity is useful only if inputs are available; stocks help only until exhausted; and technology or investment can relax a constraint after a lag. Define the market and period before judging PES.

Scarcity alone does not determine PES. The question is how much quantity supplied can change after price changes within the specified period.

Short run, long run and PES

Period Production constraint Typical PES implication
short run at least one factor of production is fixed output can change only through variable inputs, stocks or spare capacity; supply is often less elastic
long run all factors can be varied firms can expand capacity, enter or leave, retrain labour and adopt technology; supply is often more elastic

The short run and long run are defined by adjustability, not by a fixed number of months. A farm crop, hotel and digital service can each have a different adjustment horizon.

After a crop price rises, farmers may release stocks in the short run but cannot instantly grow another harvest. Over the long run they may change acreage, equipment and crop choice, increasing the quantity response.

Long-run supply is not automatically elastic. Finite deposits, climate, land, law or persistent skills constraints may keep PES below 1 even after more adjustment time.

1.3.4 - Price determination

Syllabus
2018
Topic
1.3.4
Level
AS

How market equilibrium is determined

Market equilibrium occurs at the price where quantity demanded equals quantity supplied. At this price, buyers' planned purchases exactly match sellers' planned sales, determining the equilibrium price and quantity.

Price Quantity demanded Quantity supplied Market position
$4 80 40 excess demand
$6 60 60 equilibrium
$8 40 80 excess supply

On a standard diagram, equilibrium is the intersection of the downward-sloping demand curve and upward-sloping supply curve. Read the price horizontally to the price axis and the quantity vertically to the quantity axis.

Equilibrium means planned demand and supply balance; it does not mean the outcome is fair, socially optimal or permanent. A determinant change can create a new equilibrium.

How shifts change equilibrium

Shift, other curve fixed Equilibrium price Equilibrium quantity
demand right rises rises
demand left falls falls
supply right falls rises
supply left rises falls

Identify the non-price determinant, shift the correct curve, keep the other curve fixed unless evidence says it also changes, and locate the new intersection. Then compare both equilibrium price and quantity with their original values.

When demand and supply shift together, one outcome may be certain while the other is ambiguous. Demand right plus supply left must raise price, but quantity may rise, fall or stay unchanged depending on the relative shift sizes. Demand left plus supply right must lower price, while quantity is ambiguous.

Do not infer both outcomes from the direction of one curve when both curves shift. The larger relative shift determines the ambiguous variable.

How markets remove shortages and surpluses

Disequilibrium Condition Price pressure Adjustment toward equilibrium
excess demand (shortage) Qd>QsQ_d>Q_s buyers compete and price rises quantity demanded contracts and quantity supplied extends
excess supply (surplus) Qs>QdQ_s>Q_d sellers cut price to clear unsold output quantity demanded extends and quantity supplied contracts

Price changes create movements along the existing demand and supply curves. Adjustment continues until planned quantity demanded again equals planned quantity supplied.

If a price is below equilibrium, buyers want 90 units but firms offer 50, leaving excess demand of 40. A rising price reduces purchases and encourages sales until the gap closes.

This mechanism assumes prices can adjust and participants respond. Price controls, slow information, contracts or adjustment costs can delay or prevent market clearing.

Consumer surplus and producer surplus

Surplus Meaning for one unit Area in a market diagram
consumer surplus maximum willingness to pay minus the market price actually paid below demand and above market price, up to equilibrium quantity
producer surplus market price received minus the minimum price required to supply above supply and below market price, up to equilibrium quantity

A buyer willing to pay 10whopays10 who pays7 receives 3consumersurplus.Asellerwillingtosupplyaunitforatleast3 consumer surplus. A seller willing to supply a unit for at least4 who receives 7receives7 receives3 producer surplus.

Demand represents marginal willingness to pay and supply represents the minimum acceptable price linked to marginal cost. Adding the unit-by-unit gaps gives the total surplus areas.

Producer surplus is not the same as profit: producer surplus subtracts variable production costs represented by supply, whereas profit also accounts for fixed costs.

How market shifts change surplus

Change, other curve fixed Price/quantity effect Usual surplus effect
demand right price and quantity rise producer surplus rises; consumer surplus is not determined by price alone because willingness to pay also shifted
demand left price and quantity fall producer surplus falls; consumer-surplus change needs the new demand area
supply right price falls, quantity rises consumer surplus rises; producer-surplus change needs the new supply area
supply left price rises, quantity falls consumer surplus falls; producer-surplus change needs the new supply area

Draw the original and new curves, mark both equilibria, then compare the complete areas bounded by demand or supply, the relevant price and the traded quantity. Do not compare price alone when the curve defining willingness to pay or minimum supply price has moved.

A good harvest shifts supply right, lowers price and expands quantity, increasing consumer surplus. A fall in demand for hotel rooms shifts demand left and normally reduces producer surplus.

A lower price does not automatically prove total consumer surplus rose if demand also shifted left. Surplus is an area, so both the curve and equilibrium must be considered.

Three functions of the price mechanism

Function What a price change does
signalling communicates changes in relative scarcity and consumer preferences to buyers and sellers
incentive a higher potential return encourages producers to extend supply or move resources into production; a lower return discourages them
rationing when a good is scarce, a higher price contracts quantity demanded and allocates available output to buyers willing and able to pay

If demand rises, excess demand pushes price upward. The higher price signals stronger scarcity, gives firms an incentive to increase output, and rations the limited current supply. These responses help reallocate scarce resources.

Rationing by price reflects willingness and ability to pay, not need or fairness. Signals and incentives can also be weakened by poor information, market power or barriers that prevent resources moving.

The price mechanism across market scales

Market scale Participants and price formation Important connection
local nearby buyers and sellers; local conditions strongly affect price transport limits, local capacity and local preferences
national buyers and sellers across one country national regulation, taxes, infrastructure and income
global participants and supply chains across countries exchange rates, trade costs, weather, geopolitics and world demand/supply

The same signalling, incentive and rationing functions operate at each scale. A higher world cocoa price signals scarcity to producers internationally, while a local hotel price mainly coordinates rooms and visitors in that location.

Markets can overlap: a global commodity-price change alters national import costs and then local retail prices. The relevant market is defined by the product, geography and participants able to substitute or trade.

A market's label does not guarantee one uniform price. Quality, transport, taxes, exchange rates and imperfect information can create price differences within and across scales.

Impacts of an indirect tax

Tax type Charge Supply representation
specific fixed amount per unit parallel upward/left shift by the tax per unit
ad valorem percentage of selling price upward/left pivot because tax per unit grows with price

An indirect tax raises producers' cost of supplying each unit. The consumer price rises, the net price producers receive falls, and equilibrium quantity falls. The vertical wedge between the two prices is the tax per unit; multiplying it by post-tax quantity gives government tax revenue.

Stakeholder Likely impact
consumers higher price, lower quantity and lower consumer surplus
producers lower net receipt, lower sales and lower producer surplus
government tax revenue, but administration and opportunity costs
third parties possible reduction in external costs if harmful consumption/production falls

The tax does not normally shift demand. Its effectiveness and stakeholder effects depend on tax size, PED, PES, substitutes, enforcement and time; tax revenue is not automatically a net social benefit.

Who bears an indirect tax?

Tax incidence is the division of the tax burden between consumers and producers. Consumer incidence is the rise in the price paid; producer incidence is the fall in the net price received. Together they equal the tax per unit.

Relative responsiveness Larger tax burden
demand less elastic than supply consumers
supply less elastic than demand producers
perfectly inelastic demand consumers bear all
perfectly inelastic supply producers bear all

The side less able to change quantity after the tax has fewer avoidance options, so bears more of the wedge. Statutory responsibility—who sends the payment to government—does not determine economic incidence.

Do not measure incidence from the tax-revenue rectangle alone. Compare the pre-tax equilibrium price with the post-tax consumer price and producer receipt, using the same per-unit vertical wedge.

Impacts of a government subsidy

A production subsidy is a government payment that lowers producers' effective cost and encourages production. Supply shifts right/down; the price consumers pay falls, the price producers receive including subsidy rises, and equilibrium quantity increases.

The vertical difference between the producer receipt and consumer price is the subsidy per unit. Multiplying this wedge by the post-subsidy quantity gives government expenditure.

Stakeholder Likely impact
consumers lower price, higher quantity and higher consumer surplus
producers higher effective receipt, larger sales and higher producer surplus
government expenditure and an opportunity cost
third parties possible external benefits, or external costs if extra output is harmful

The effect depends on subsidy size, PED, PES, time lags and whether firms pass benefits through. Support may build capacity or correct underconsumption, but can cause dependency, overproduction or government failure.

Removing a subsidy reverses the direction: supply shifts left, consumer price rises and quantity falls. A subsidy is not free resources; taxpayers or foregone public spending finance it.

Who gains from a subsidy?

Subsidy incidence divides the per-unit subsidy between consumers and producers. Consumer incidence is the fall in the price consumers pay; producer incidence is the rise in the effective price producers receive. Together they equal the subsidy per unit.

Relative responsiveness Larger share of subsidy benefit
demand less elastic than supply consumers gain more through a lower price
supply less elastic than demand producers gain more through a higher effective receipt
perfectly inelastic demand consumers receive the full price benefit
perfectly inelastic supply producers receive the full benefit

As with tax incidence, the less responsive side captures more because it changes quantity less and has fewer alternatives. Legal payment to producers does not imply producers retain the full benefit.

Incidence is not the same as total government spending. Government expenditure is subsidy per unit multiplied by post-subsidy quantity; incidence divides each unit's wedge between the two sides.

1.3.5 - Market failure

Syllabus
2018
Topic
1.3.5
Level
AS

When a market fails

Market failure occurs when the price mechanism produces an inefficient allocation of resources. The market quantity is too high or too low compared with the socially optimal quantity, so total social welfare could be increased by changing output.

Market outcome Comparison with social optimum Welfare problem
overproduction or overconsumption market quantity is too high units whose social cost exceeds their social benefit are produced
underproduction or underconsumption market quantity is too low units whose social benefit exceeds their social cost are not produced

Market failure does not mean that no market exists, every participant loses, or the market price fails to clear demand and supply. An equilibrium can still be socially inefficient.

Six sources of market failure

Source Why allocation can be inefficient
externalities decision-makers omit benefits or costs imposed on third parties
free-rider problem and non-provision of public goods non-excludability makes charging users difficult, weakening private provision
imperfect market information decisions are based on missing, unequal or inaccurate information
moral hazard protection from consequences changes behaviour and may increase risk-taking
speculation assets are bought mainly because a future price rise is expected
market bubbles self-reinforcing expectations can push asset prices above a sustainable value

These sources can overlap. For example, asymmetric information in insurance can coexist with moral hazard, while speculative buying can help create a bubble. Keep the mechanisms distinct before explaining how they interact.

Government failure and intervention methods belong to the next syllabus Topic. They are not additional sources in this 1.3.5 list.

Private, external and social benefits

Benefit Who receives it? Example from education
private benefit consumers or producers directly involved in the transaction a graduate may gain higher lifetime earnings
external benefit a third party outside the transaction other firms may benefit from a more productive workforce
social benefit everyone affected: private plus external benefit the graduate's gain plus benefits to wider society

Marginal social benefit equals marginal private benefit plus marginal external benefit: MSB=MPB+MEBMSB = MPB + MEB. If an action creates an external benefit, MSB>MPBMSB>MPB.

A benefit is not external merely because it is large or socially desirable. It is external only when it falls on a third party not represented in the transaction.

Private, external and social costs

Cost Who bears it? Example from production
private cost consumer or producer making the decision a factory's labour, energy and material costs
external cost a third party outside the transaction nearby residents bear health or clean-up costs from pollution
social cost everyone affected: private plus external cost the factory's own costs plus third-party costs

Marginal social cost equals marginal private cost plus marginal external cost: MSC=MPC+MECMSC = MPC + MEC. With a negative production externality, MSC>MPCMSC>MPC.

A cost paid by the buyer or seller is private even if it is undesirable. Double-counting the same harm as both a private and external cost exaggerates social cost.

Four types of externality

Decision creating spillover External benefit External cost
production bee pollination raises a neighbouring farm's output factory emissions damage third-party health or property
consumption vaccination reduces infection risk for other people smoking or congested driving harms people outside the purchase

Classify an externality in two steps: identify whether production or consumption creates it, then identify a benefit or cost falling on a third party. The same good may create more than one externality at different stages.

Do not label a producer's own revenue or a consumer's own protection as an external benefit. Those are private benefits because they belong to participants in the transaction.

Marginal externality diagrams

Case Curve relationship Market compared with social optimum Lost welfare
external benefit from consumption MSB>MPBMSB>MPB; use MSC=MPCMSC=MPC unless stated otherwise Qmarket<QsocialQ_{market}<Q_{social} gains from the units between the two quantities are missed
external cost from production MSC>MPCMSC>MPC; use MSB=MPBMSB=MPB unless stated otherwise Qmarket>QsocialQ_{market}>Q_{social} excess units have marginal social cost above marginal social benefit

Draw marginal cost and benefit on the vertical axis and quantity on the horizontal axis. The market equilibrium uses the private curves; the social optimum is where MSB=MSCMSB=MSC. Mark both quantities, then identify the welfare triangle between the relevant social and private curves over the gap in output.

For a consumption external benefit, correcting underconsumption creates a welfare gain equal to the previously lost welfare. For a production external cost, reducing overproduction removes welfare loss.

The triangle is not automatically tax revenue, subsidy spending or total external cost. Its boundaries must follow the marginal curves between QmarketQ_{market} and QsocialQ_{social}.

Externalities in context

Context Possible third-party effect Causal link to check
transport congestion, noise, emissions or improved connectivity identify who is outside the journey transaction
health infection risk, public healthcare costs or herd protection separate the user's health effect from effects on others
education productivity, innovation or lower public-service costs distinguish a learner's earnings from wider benefits
environment pollution, resource depletion, biodiversity or climate effects connect the activity to a specific third-party cost
financial risk-taking can transfer losses to savers, taxpayers or the wider economy show how another party bears consequences

A valid application names the decision-maker, the third party, the spillover and the resulting resource-allocation effect. Context alone does not prove an externality.

Avoid inventing statistics or assuming every effect is external. Effects already priced into the transaction are private, while policies for correcting externalities belong to Topic 1.3.6.

Public and private goods

Characteristic Private good Public good
rivalry one person's consumption reduces what remains for others one person's benefit does not reduce the benefit available to others
excludability non-payers can be prevented from consuming it is impossible or prohibitively difficult to exclude non-payers
example a meal or a seat on a crowded service lighthouse protection or national defence

Test rivalry and excludability separately. A good is a pure public good only when it is both non-rival and non-excludable. Congestion, access charges or capacity limits can make a real-world example impure.

Public provision does not by itself make something a public good, and private provision does not make it a private good. Classification depends on consumption characteristics.

Why free riding blocks public-good provision

Because a public good is non-excludable, a person can receive its benefit without paying. Each person therefore has an incentive to wait for others to fund it. If many people free ride, a private supplier cannot reveal willingness to pay or collect enough revenue.

Expected revenue may not cover production cost, so profit-seeking firms provide too little or none of the good even when its total social benefit exceeds its social cost. This is non-provision or underprovision, a form of market failure.

Flood defences protect many residents at once. One resident's protection does not reduce another's, and excluding non-payers from the protected area may be impractical, so voluntary private payment is difficult to sustain.

A free rider is not simply a low-income consumer or someone using a subsidised service. The problem arises from receiving a non-excludable benefit without contributing to provision.

Symmetric and asymmetric information

Information structure Meaning Decision risk
symmetric information buyer and seller possess the same relevant information disagreement may remain, but neither side has a relevant information advantage
asymmetric information one party has more or better relevant information than the other price, quality or risk may be assessed incorrectly

An insurance applicant may know more about their health or driving risk than the insurer. Conversely, a provider may know more about a product's quality or limitations than the buyer.

Asymmetry is unequal relevant information, not simply uncertainty. Both parties can be uncertain while still holding equally limited information.

Why information gaps matter

An information gap exists when a decision-maker lacks relevant knowledge about benefits, costs, quality or risk. Choices then reflect perceived rather than actual private benefits and costs, so demand, supply and resource allocation may move away from the socially efficient outcome.

Gap Possible decision Allocation effect
benefits underestimated too little vaccination, education, pension saving or insurance underconsumption and under-allocation of resources
harms or risks underestimated too much sugar or a risky financial product overconsumption and over-allocation of resources
one party conceals risk or quality price does not reflect expected cost or quality unsuitable trades, higher claims or market withdrawal

A different choice is not automatically evidence of failure. It may be rational if preferences, income, opportunity cost and known risk differ; the causal claim needs a relevant information gap.

Information failure across four markets

Market Information problem Possible misallocation
healthcare patients may underestimate treatment or prevention benefits and providers know more about care prevention may be underconsumed or unnecessary care may be purchased
education families may not know long-run private and external returns or course quality education may be underconsumed or resources enter poor-quality provision
pensions future needs, compound growth and product risks are difficult to judge saving may be too low or unsuitable products chosen
insurance consumers may underestimate loss risk; applicants and insurers may hold unequal risk information cover may be underconsumed, premiums mispriced or high-risk claims underestimated

For each context, identify who lacks information, what decision changes, and whether resources are consequently over- or under-allocated. Do not jump from 'information is imperfect' directly to a conclusion without this chain.

Income constraints, preferences and prices can also explain choices. Information failure is significant only to the extent that better relevant information would change the allocation.

How moral hazard occurs

Moral hazard occurs when protection from the consequences of an action changes behaviour, encouraging greater risk-taking or less care because another party bears some of the cost.

  1. A contract, guarantee or expectation of rescue transfers part of a possible loss.
  2. The protected party has less incentive to prevent that loss.
  3. Behaviour becomes riskier after protection is available.
  4. Insurers, lenders, governments or other parties face higher expected costs.

An insured driver may take less care because the insurer pays much of a covered loss. A bank expecting rescue if it fails may choose riskier lending because depositors, a guarantee fund or government absorbs part of the downside.

Moral hazard is a change in incentives under protection. Concealing risk before an agreement is asymmetric information, and an unavoidable accident without changed behaviour is not moral hazard.

Moral hazard and stakeholders

Market Consumers Producers / financial firms Workers Government
insurance more protection but potentially higher premiums, exclusions or rejected claims more claims and monitoring costs; risky customers may be mispriced jobs may expand with demand, but losses can threaten employment regulation or compensation may impose administration and fiscal costs
banking deposit protection can preserve savings, but failures can restrict credit rescue expectations can encourage risky lending; losses damage owners and creditors bank failure or credit contraction can reduce employment guarantees or rescues may protect stability but transfer risk and create opportunity cost

The impact depends on how much loss is transferred, monitoring, deductibles or capital at risk, the probability of rescue, and whether protecting the wider system prevents larger spillover costs.

Protection does not prove moral hazard. The analysis must show that it altered incentives or behaviour, then trace consequences to each relevant stakeholder.

How market bubbles arise

A market bubble is a rapid or sustained rise in an asset price above a sustainable or fundamental value, often driven by speculation and expectations of further price increases.

  1. An initial demand increase raises the asset price.
  2. The rise attracts speculators expecting resale profit.
  3. Easier credit, herd behaviour or overconfidence can add demand.
  4. Higher demand confirms optimistic expectations and pushes price further from underlying value.
  5. When credit, confidence or expectations reverse, demand can fall sharply and the bubble may burst.

A large price rise is not necessarily a bubble: fundamentals such as income, rents, scarcity or expected earnings may also rise. Bubble claims require a reason prices are unsustainable, not hindsight alone.

Who gains and loses from market bubbles?

Stakeholder During a housing or share bubble If the bubble bursts
consumers / households owners may feel wealthier; first-time buyers and renters may face poorer affordability late buyers lose wealth or face negative equity; consumption can fall
producers / firms construction, finance and investment activity may expand sales, investment, profits and access to credit may contract
workers employment and wages may rise in expanding sectors redundancies can follow falling construction, finance or demand
government tax receipts may rise and activity appears strong lower receipts, higher support spending or financial-rescue costs may follow

Housing bubbles affect affordability, rents, mortgages, construction and banks. Stock-market bubbles affect household portfolios and firms' cost of raising finance. In both, early sellers may gain while buyers near the peak bear greater downside risk.

Judge impact using ownership rates, leverage, bubble size, exposure of banks and pension funds, policy response, and the time horizon. A correction is more damaging when debt is high and losses spread through credit and spending.

Do not assume every stakeholder loses during the rise or every price fall is harmful. Distribution, timing and whether prices were detached from fundamentals determine the outcome.

1.3.6 - Government intervention in markets

Syllabus
2018
Topic
1.3.6
Level
AS

Why governments intervene in markets

Governments intervene when the market allocation is judged inefficient: output may differ from the social optimum because of externalities, public-good non-provision, imperfect information, moral hazard or bubbles. Intervention aims to change incentives, prices, information, rights or direct provision so resources move closer to the socially efficient allocation.

Market-failure diagnosis Possible intervention aim
negative externality and overproduction make decision-makers face more of the external cost and reduce output
positive externality and underconsumption lower access barriers or increase perceived/private benefit
public-good non-provision finance or provide the non-rival, non-excludable good
information gap improve relevant information or protect poorly informed parties
unstable incentives or risk transfer constrain behaviour, monitoring or exposure to losses

Success requires comparing the intervention's welfare gain with all opportunity, administration and unintended costs. Correcting a market failure is the purpose; it does not guarantee the result.

Equity, political popularity or higher government revenue can influence policy, but this objective specifically requires intervention with reference to market failure.

Eight methods of government intervention

Method Main mechanism Key risk or limitation
indirect tax: specific or ad valorem raises firms' effective costs and price, reducing equilibrium quantity; specific is fixed per unit, ad valorem is a percentage of value incidence and quantity response depend on PED/PES; evasion and administration cost
subsidy lowers effective production cost, shifting supply right and increasing quantity fiscal opportunity cost, weak targeting or dependency
maximum price binding ceiling below equilibrium lowers legal price but creates excess demand shortages, queues, quality decline or informal markets
minimum guaranteed price binding floor above equilibrium raises legal price but creates excess supply disposal, buffer-stock or purchasing costs and overproduction
tradeable pollution permits caps permitted emissions and lets firms buy or sell permits too many permits produce a low price and weak incentive; monitoring is required
extension of property rights assigns enforceable rights so parties can negotiate over spillovers negotiation may fail with many parties, unclear harm or high transaction costs
state provision government finances or supplies goods/services directly tax cost, weak incentives, rationing and possible inefficiency
regulation sets legal standards, limits, bans or requirements enforcement cost, inflexibility, avoidance and unintended substitution
provision of information labels, campaigns or disclosures reduce relevant knowledge gaps information may be ignored, misunderstood or insufficient when other constraints bind

For a tax or subsidy, shift supply and compare the new equilibrium price and quantity, then identify the consumer/producer wedge and government revenue or spending. For a price control, keep the curves fixed, place the legal price on the correct side of equilibrium, and read quantity demanded and supplied at that price.

A permit market works only if the total cap is scarce enough to create a meaningful permit price. Firms with low abatement costs reduce emissions and may sell permits; firms with high abatement costs may buy them. Tightening the cap shifts permit supply left and, other things equal, raises the permit price.

A named policy is not automatically effective. Analyse the binding level, behavioural response, enforcement, opportunity cost and whether the intervention targets the diagnosed failure.

Choosing intervention for the context

Context Plausible market-failure focus Methods that could target it
health information gaps, external costs/benefits, affordability information, regulation, taxes, subsidies or state provision
housing affordability, externalities, information or unstable bubbles price controls, regulation, state provision or information
education external benefits and information gaps subsidies, information or state provision
transport congestion, emissions and network benefits taxes, permits, regulation, subsidies or provision
environment external costs and unclear property rights taxes, permits, regulation or extension of rights
energy pollution, security, affordability and information taxes/subsidies, price controls, regulation or information
agriculture volatile prices, externalities and food supply guaranteed prices, taxes/subsidies, regulation or information
commodities price volatility, externalities and resource depletion buffer-linked price floors, taxes, permits or regulation

Start with the failure and objective, then compare instruments by effectiveness, distribution, time lag, fiscal/administrative cost, enforceability and unintended consequences. More than one method may be combined, but each needs a distinct job.

Context does not determine one universally correct policy. For example, a maximum housing rent may improve affordability for tenants who secure a property while also creating shortage or reducing long-run supply.

What government failure means

Government failure occurs when government intervention causes a net welfare loss: the total social costs created by the intervention exceed its total social benefits, leaving resources more inefficiently allocated than the relevant alternative.

Outcome Interpretation
policy creates benefits greater than all social costs intervention may improve welfare, even if it is imperfect
policy creates costs greater than benefits net welfare loss and government failure
policy does not fully correct the original failure not enough by itself to prove government failure; compare net effects

A high indirect tax may reduce an external cost but also encourage illegal smuggling, consume enforcement resources and lose revenue. It is government failure only if these and other social costs outweigh the welfare benefit of the reduction in harmful activity.

An unpopular policy, administrative error or unintended effect is not automatically government failure. The defining test is net welfare loss relative to a relevant counterfactual.

Five causes of government failure

Cause How it can create net welfare loss
information gaps government misjudges costs, benefits, behaviour or the scale/location of the problem, so the instrument or level is poorly targeted
lack of incentives protected or state-run organisations may face weak pressure to control cost, innovate or respond to users
unintended consequences people adapt through substitution, avoidance, black markets or changed quality, offsetting the policy aim and creating new costs
excessive administrative costs design, monitoring, enforcement and compliance use resources that may exceed the policy's welfare gain
moral hazard guarantees, subsidies or expected rescue reduce exposure to loss and encourage riskier behaviour

For any policy, state the cause, show the behavioural or implementation mechanism, identify who bears the additional cost, and compare it with the intended welfare gain. Several causes may reinforce one another: an information gap can lead to a poorly designed rule that is costly to enforce and easy to evade.

A large tax difference across a border may encourage fuel smuggling. This is an unintended consequence; policing and seizure add administrative cost, while lost revenue and illegal activity may offset the tax's externality benefit.

Market failure and government failure are different diagnoses. Externalities, public goods and asymmetric information can justify intervention; the five causes here explain why that intervention may itself reduce net welfare.