2.3.A—Estimate probabilities using simulations

Estimate probabilities using simulations.

• A random process generates results that are determined by chance.
• An outcome is the result of one trial of a random process.
• An event is a collection of outcomes.
• Simulation is a way to model random events such that simulated outcomes closely match real-world outcomes. All possible outcomes are associated with a value to be determined by chance. Record the counts of simulated outcomes and the count total.
• The probability of an outcome or event is its long-run relative frequency—that is, its relative frequency over a large number of trials.
• The relative frequency of an outcome or event determined from empirical data can be used to estimate the actual, or true, probability of that outcome or event.
• The law of large numbers states that for independent trials, as the number of trials increases, the long-run relative frequency of the outcome or event gets closer and closer to a single value.